The scramble by the main coalitions for Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and his ANC counterpart Musalia Mudavadi seems to be over.
Focus now shifts to what the two leaders will deliver to Azimio la Umoja and Kenya Kwanza political formations in the August polls.
Now that ODM leader Raila Odinga has netted Mr Musyoka after Deputy President William Ruto received Mr Mudavadi, two months ago, political analysts are extrapolating what the two prized assets will deliver to their presidential candidates.
But who between the two politicians struck a better deal after agreeing to play second fiddle and how will that be factored into the voting patterns, especially in their Ukambani and Western backyards?
“Kalonzo (Mr Musyoka) is a political tactician who has learned how to analyse a mountain to figure out how he can reach the range, even if he does not make it to the summit and has therefore managed to stay relevant through and through,” says Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University.
It has emerged that the Wiper leader negotiated for among other things what he will personally, his Wiper party and One Kenya Alliance (OKA) allied parties get in Mr Odinga’s government.
Political analyst Martin Andati agrees it appears Kalonzo struck a better deal because he will either be the Prime Minister or Deputy President and his team will get 33 per cent of top positions in the Azimio government.
He does not know what Mr Mudavadi negotiated for and he thinks the ANC leader is therefore not sure of the kind of deal he will get in Dr Ruto’s government.
He explains that Mr Mudavadi will therefore not be in a position to negotiate effectively now that he already boarded the Kenya Kwanza band-wagon.
“There is an understanding that Kalonzo (Mr Musyoka) will be a key principal and he has also negotiated for 33 per cent of government in his capacity as the leader of OKA but nobody seems to know what Musalia has negotiated for,” says Mr Andati.
Asked if there is a possibility of Dr Ruto agreeing to give Mr Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula’s parties 33 per cent of government, the pundit said it is highly unlikely that they will even get 20 per cent from the DP.
He also pointed out by insisting on President Uhuru Kenyatta being the guarantor of the deal between him and Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka’s Wiper party candidates will be funded for their campaign expenditure just like those in ODM and Jubilee parties.
And additionally, he may have also sought the guarantee of ODM and Jubilee not fielding candidates in his strongholds like Ukambani, same to Wiper party leaders like former Deputy Speaker Farah Maalim and former Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere.
Prof. Gitile however says although the deal Mr Mudavadi agreed to with Dr Ruto is not known, it is highly likely that he will be given the running mate ticket because of the prevailing factors in the Mt Kenya region.
“Dr Ruto’s support in Mt Kenya is largely influenced by the bad state of the economy and the big number of unemployed youth and if brings together politicians allied to him into one group then issues like that of the running mate will not matter,” says Prof Gitile.
He further argues Dr Ruto’s approach which focuses on how people will be helped make money in future appears to be making a big impact in the region than President Uhuru Kenyatta promoting continuity of what the Jubilee government has done.
“My view is getting a deputy president from Mt Kenya adds no value to both Azimio and Kenya Kwanza because people are concerned about their economic misery,” says Prof Gitile.
That position however runs contrary to what leaders allied to Ruto in the region are saying after they all agreed that the number two position in all coalitions should be reserved for the region because of votes they will get there.
Prof Gitile says anything is possible in politics and he cannot be surprised if Ruto sits down with Mt Kenya leaders to strike an agreeable deal on the share of government (select ministries) for the region.
Mr Andati says the Raila, Uhuru, Kalonzo team will now be very difficult to beat unless something very dramatic happens between now and the August 9, poll.
He however also thinks the political scene could have been completely different for Mr Odinga’s presidency had he and President Kenyatta handled Musalia and Wetangula differently.
“Unlike the Kalonzo (Mr Musyoka) talks that appeared strategic, diplomatic and calculated over the long course, Mr Mudavadi’s was handled in a clumsy manner and that is a lesson they must have learned,” says Andati.
Other factors that could have led to Mr Musyoka’s delayed decision according to some political players is that he could have run out of options and the fact that presidential campaigns are expensive.
Former Eldoret University lecturer Dr Kiprop Busienei says Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi appeared not to have the capacity to run a presidential campaign.
He says the pressure exerted on Mr Musyoka through Ukambani Governors Charity Ngilu, Alfred Mutua and Kivutha Kibwana also contributed.