CORD defectors left hanging as opposition vows to lock them out

CORD leaders from left Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga and Moses Wetangula

Dozens of opposition leaders who defected from their mother political parties to join the Jubilee Party (JP) are hanging on a dangerous political cliff.

Analysts say the defectors have twice as much challenge as their ex-Jubilee coalition colleagues.

Running on a ruling party in opposition strongholds, the MPs and governors must confront perception issues as well as brave a raring opposition out to punish them for alleged betrayal.

A critical mass of Kenyan voters is not yet fully liberated from the yoke of tribe in electoral considerations and regional contemplations continue to play a huge role in electoral choice, analysts say.

 “From a purely pedestal political understanding, the defectors are generally not going back. But then you need political insights from individual regions to understand the dynamics at play and identify those who are definitely saying good bye to their careers and those who may not,” Dr Francis Owakah of University of Nairobi says.

President Uhuru Kenyatta, being the Jubilee candidate, will hold sway over Central, but his influence may bear little for his candidates in Lower Eastern, Coast, Nyanza and Western, Owakah says.

“The fact of the matter is that some of these fellows are going nowhere. This is necessarily true in some clear cases of individual leaders in Coast, Eastern and Western based on tested attitudes of voters and other considerations peculiar to those places,” he says.

While most of these leaders say they are ready to educate their supporters on their move, their former parties are asserting the end of their political careers and have written them off. Historically, defections from opposition into ruling parties have always been a dicey affair.

“What I can tell those from Wiper is that they are politically finished because they moved alone and people are waiting to mock them at the ballot. The only humble thing I ask them is to be honourable and resign. It would be dishonest if they continue to serve and earn salaries after they have cheated their voters,” Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka told The Standard on Saturday.

The party lost five MPs - Regina Ndambuki (Kilome), Richard Makenga (Kaiti) and Michael Munyao (Mbooni) from Makueni County and Joe Mutambu (Mwingi Central) and Munuve Mati (Mwingi North) from Kitui.

Four other Ukambani MPs – Vincent Musau (Mwala- CCU), Victor Munyaka (Machakos Town – CCU), Francis Mwangangi (Yatta- Muungano) and Rachel Nyamai (Kitui South – Narc) also joined Jubilee.

Musau, Munyaka and Mwangangi are erstwhile Musyoka allies who ditched Wiper over botched 2013 primaries and went on to beat the party candidates.

“They (Wiper loyalists) should be very afraid of us because unlike them, we have concrete and tangible things to show in our campaigns as a result of working with government. We had nothing to show for working with them in the past and yet we still beat them and their candidates in the last poll,” Munyaka, who confirmed he will be running on a Jubilee ticket, said.

He added: “The only card they can use against us is a tribal hatred card. That’s their only weapon, but we are ready to counter it by educating our people. Our voters are getting more enlightened by the day and they understand ethnic hatred cards are not the way to go.”

But Musyoka is adamant they are as gone as yesterday; insisting on their resignations: “Let Jubilee be honest and ask the defectors to seek fresh mandate. It will also help know if they got value for the money they used to buy the politicians. We welcome them for a duel. They will know that they wasted their money.”

Fireworks

In Coast, Kwale Woman Representative Zainab Chidzuga was among a constellation of Coastal leaders who dumped ODM for Jubilee. Others included Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro, Kwale Governor Salim Mvrya, Ganze MP Peter Shehe, Kaloleni MP Mustafa Iddi and Lunga Lunga’s Khatib Mwashetani.

Chidzuga says the Coastal leaders consulted widely before making the move and are ready for a political duel with their former political parties. She too is promising victory and fireworks against the opposition.

“We are contended that the current government is on the path towards changing the lives of our people. This is all we sought to do when joining politics. Here is a government with which we can sit down and dialogue and get solutions. What else should we ask for? The rest is politics and we can handle as leaders using our own strategies and with the support of our people,” she said.

Others who left ODM for Jubilee include MPs Mpuri Aburi (Tigania East), Isaac Mwaura (Nominated), Samuel Arama (Nakuru West), John Waluke (Sirisia) and Steven Kariuki (Mathare).

According to Meru Senator Kiraitu Murungi, the mass defections has jolted the Opposition and left people in its strongholds doubting their political stance. He says this will work to Jubilee’s advantage in 2017 as voters give the defectors the benefit of doubt.

“You cannot lose such a big number and pretend everything is okay. You can pretend as your political base is clawed deep but you cannot hide it for long. For now, they can continue to play for the gallery and put on a brave face but we know from our end they are hurting,” he said.

Ford Kenya lost its national chairman, Senator John Munyes (Turkana) while Kanu lost MPs Helen Sambili, Samwel Moroto, Eric Keter and Moses Cheboi.

Bumula MP Boniface Otsiula, whose party – New Ford Kenya – dissolved, said he is not looking back in regret. He said joining Jubilee was the most politically sensible thing to do since the government had initiated several development projects in his region.

“We are determined to ensure that the region votes in one direction this time round. Our people have decided to support the government and with time we will convince everyone to see the light,” said Otsiula.

Since multi-party era began in 1992, a number of opposition MPs have ditched their opposition parties for the governing party. The defections were most prevalent in the first multi-party Parliament of 1992-1997.

During that period, a total of 13 MPs switched from opposition into the ruling party Kanu. Of the 13 more than half – eight – won back their seats while five lost in the ensuing by-elections.

In March 1993, MPs Protus Momanyi and Charles Owino ditched DP and Ford Kenya, respectively, for Kanu. Momanyi won but Owino lost, never to see the inside of Parliament again after barely lasting three months there.

In June of the same year, Julius Njoroge of Ford Asili crossed to Kanu but lost to the Ford Asili candidate in the by-election. In the following month, two MPs from Ford Asili – Nicodemus Khaniri and Apili Wawire – crossed to Kanu and won back their seats on Kanu tickets.

The following year, 1994, four opposition MPs – Javan Omani, Japheth Shamalla, Ben Magwagwa and Tom Obondo – crossed their parties for Kanu. The first three, all from Ford Asili, won back their seats on Kanu tickets. Obondo from Ford Kenya lost the seat to his former party.

Former parties

In August of the same year, three MPs crossed the opposition for Kanu. Two of them – Kirui Kimondo (Ford Asili) and Ochola Ogur (Ford Kenya) lost to their former parties while Ireri Ndwiga of Kenya National Congress (KNC) won back his seat on Kanu.

The last opposition defector of the first post-pluralism Parliament Agnes Ndetei (Democratic Party) won back her seat in 1996 by-election on a Kanu ticket but has never seen the inside of Parliament ever since.

It’s in the same year that MP Raila Odinga (Ford Kenya) ditched his party and joined another little-known opposition outfit National Development Party (NDP). He won back his seat.

According to the acting Registrar of Political Parties Lucy Ndung’u, most of those who announced their defections or whose defections were announced may not have officially written to her to defect.

“I am not sure if there are any who have written to say they defected. But I will know once I am back in the office on Monday,” Ndung’u told The Standard on Sunday.

She however said those leaders whose parties dissolved and who do not wish to join the new party should go on with their business as the changes do not affect them. They can also join other political parties or remain as independent members.