Presidential aspirants go into panic mode

By Stephen Makabila

With the December 4 deadline for pre-election pacts fast closing in, presidential aspirants in the G7 Alliance are in a state of panic as no workable line-up is forthcoming.

Open contempt, mistrust, and suspicion have for months characterised the unity talks among the key presidential aspirants, as they try to cobble up a team they hope will help them trounce their common enemy, Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

As they negotiate among themselves, overtures from Raila and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi has heightened?confusion and seem to be narrowing the chances of a united front in the run-up to March 4 General Election.

The Standard On Sunday has established that closed-door power negotiations between Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are often tense due to underlying suspicions and that the beaming smiles whenever they parade before cameras are often cosmetic.

URP leader William Ruto is also not sitting pretty as a silent revolt is simmering in his Rift Valley turf following recent conflicting reports on which side of the political divide he wants to be.Discussions at a meeting that took place last weekend around Nakuru in Ngata farm owned by a prominent personality from the Rift Valley, failed to reach a decision regarding the direction the Kalenjin community should take in the 2013 presidential election.

The meeting, attended by about 200 elders from the Kalenjin community is reported to have ended in a stalemate with elders maintaining that Ruto had no right to cut deals with presidential aspirants without seeking popular support.

Reacting to reports that Ruto had reached a deal to back Uhuru for presidency, one of the elders said:

“Ma kindii boiyo kosobei! Ma amei ilat ket aeng! (You cannot inherit yourself nor does lightning strike twice on the same spot)”. This was in reference to the possibility of Uhuru, a Kikuyu, taking over the presidency from Mwai Kibaki, who also comes from the same community.

Credible sources familiar with the intrigues say things have never been the same again since the time Uhuru and Ruto almost fell out with Kalonzo in February this year, over the remarks the VP’s ally, Kangundo MP Johnstone Muthama had made during a prayer rally in Machakos.

Uhuru and Ruto supporters construed the Kangundo MP’s coded remarks as confirmation of the perception that Kalonzo was gleefully waiting in the wings to benefit if the two failed to run because of their ICC cases.

Ruto has held private talks with Raila, and Mudavadi.  Uhuru had initially reached out to Mudavadi, while Kalonzo and Raila have of late given a semblance of the possibility of establishing cozy political relations. Nevertheless, Kalonzo denies the possibility of a political pact between Raila and him. Instead, Kalonzo says, his party, the Wiper Democratic Movement Party, has its strategies of instituting coalition talks and that neither ODM nor Raila are featuring in those strategies. On his part, Ruto is reported to be comfortable with an alliance with either Uhuru or Raila, but is wary of a possible political backlash in his home turf of Rift Valley.

Populous region

Sources familiar with discussions say that Uhuru’s apparent fanatical following in the populous Central Province and his family’s fabled affluence have put him a cut above the rest.

 This has created a situation where his key supporters have presumed that Uhuru is the first among equals, and that the presidential ticket of whichever alliance he is in will be his for the taking. This presumption has created significant friction in some quarters complicating further an already complicated process for a quick solution as to whom the group shall nominate to bell the cat.

“The key presidential aspirants are in a state of panic without a firm ‘Plan A’ (joint-line up) if Uhuru and Ruto are allowed to run despite the ICC cases facing them, or a ‘Plan B’ (Compromise candidate) if the two are not on the presidential ballot,” said the source.

And with no clear rules of engagement for structured negotiations in G7, the power of numbers and financial muscle have emerged to be the guiding factors, something that seems to favour Uhuru and Ruto, who are more financially endowed compared to Wamalwa and Kalonzo.

“Before the Uhuru-Ruto deal, Ruto had rejected an earlier line-up that had Wamalwa as Uhuru’s running-mate and him (Ruto) as Majority Party Leader, because the Eldoret North MP felt he had more votes compared to Wamalwa and thus cannot play second fiddle to the Saboti MP,” said the insider. “While Ruto noted he can deliver 2.5 million votes from the Rift Valley, Uhuru had put his figure at 5.3 million from Mt Kenya region, Wamalwa at one million from his Western Province base, while Kalonzo at 1.2 million from his Ukambani region,” added the insider who has been attending meetings of the G7Alliance’s Political Affairs Committee.

A close Uhuru ally, lawyer Justin Muturi says forces allied to ODM have been working overdrive to ensure the unity talks do not succeed. ODM chairman Henry Kosgey, however dismisses such claims, noting the party was not interested in ruining any alliance.

“ODM is the most popular party and it’s focused on winning the General Election. It has no interest in meddling in affairs of rival politicians,” added Kosgey.

Wamalwa told The Standard On Sunday in an interview that though there is no guarantee in politics, the G7 is headed for political marriage.

“If we have survived challenges over the last two years, then nothing can stop us from overcoming the same in the survived courtship for the last two years and that it was remaining few weeks. We are able to find a formula of offering Kenyans a winning team,” added Wamalwa.

Talking on overtures from non-G7 members, Wamalwa noted there was nothing wrong with it, and that politics is about the expected and the unexpected.