Why Kenya's next vision needs a lock, not a launch

Kenya's greatest development challenge is the lack of policy continuity across successive governments.[ Courtesy]

Governor of Kisumu, Anyang’ Nyong’o, and economist Hiroyuki Hino did not present President William Ruto with a 30-40-year strategy that includes the creation of a “First World Nation.” What they presented is called an experiment in physics.

The philosopher Ibn Khaldun noted during his life over 700 years ago that states fail because of the conflict of slow-moving bureaucratic processes and fast-moving historical events, and Kenya is finding itself in the same situation now. By this time point, the Vision 2030 strategy must be accomplished. The proposal made by Nyong’o and Hino, which is aimed at agricultural advancements, industrialisation aimed at exports, and a knowledge economy based on AI technology, shows good progress in terms of high ambitions. However, good ambitions don’t pay off unless there is a solid foundation for them.

The problem is that Kenya has no problem with the blueprint but a continuity problem.

Kenya's strategic environment is riddled with history devoid of policies. If you consider the political history of the country, the problem that is holding the nation back is one that occurs every 1,825 days when a new government is formed and proceeds to destroy whatever its predecessor has built by rebranding all that has worked and deploying funds to new initiatives. Consequently, huge investments become useless structures in the territory, and other organisations change their plans. Government officials know well that planning for the long-term is quite a risky undertaking.

And so, this cycle of forgetfulness causes great loss to the nation. You can't build a successful nation if its institutions have the memory that lasts only as long as the political campaign.

What is important in the proposal of Nyong'o and Hino is not the exact area of concern but the idea of the establishment of the National Development Act with the help of the renewed National Economic and Social Council (NESC).

Actual implementation is what distinguishes dreams from promises. The establishment of a National Development Act will turn long-term planning from being a matter of choice to a binding necessity.

Evidence is not purely theoretical in nature. For example, countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam have not achieved success due to their extraordinary advantage or geographically favourable location. Their success can be attributed to having continuous policies supported by strong institutions. For instance, when South Korea implemented its Economic Development Plans in 1962, there were political leaders changes, but the basic trend was preserved and maintained legally.

In order to make sure the above-mentioned law will not be just another nice-looking law, it should have three essential structural features.

The first feature is the capital budget lock. The new law should require a certain fixed percentage of the development budget to be spent on national priority projects. Any deviations from that rule should require a super-majority of two-thirds in parliament.

The second essential feature is enforcement authority. NESC should not just be another advisory committee. It should act with the power of law when auditing the progress of infrastructure realisation and efficiency of capital allocation.

The third is the statutory speed. Seasonally, Kenya has focused too much on building of capacity by establishing more task forces, increasing the scope of various documents, and making launches rather grand. But it forgot to provide speedy delivery within this context. The law must impose fixed deadlines on necessary approvals and investments. Delayed expansion of a harbour by committee discussions for one and a half years means that this project is no longer delayed. Its fate is doomed.

In the time of budget constraints and huge funding shortages, the only thing that plays into our favour is not borrowing by the government or employing additional taxation measures, but rather the speed with which the plans are implemented.

The idea of transforming Kenya into a "first world" nation is good, but the law is needed to support it. The establishment of a Development Act will diminish the danger of using political influence on the execution of plans.

Only then will Kenya manage to escape the middle-income trap, since now we are ready to share the plan required.

The writer is the Communications and Partnerships Manager at Emerging Leaders Foundation, Africa.