For crisis in ODM to end, Oburu must shape up or ship out

ODM leader Oburu Odinga addresses party delegates at his home in Bondo, Siaya. [File, Standard]

As 2025 came to a close, Infotrak released an opinion poll showing the popularity of political parties across the country. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) polled second, with 19 per cent rating; after the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) that scored 23 per cent. ODM's impressive polling seemed to defy the fomenting internal crisis following the death of Raila Odinga. A plausible explanation is that the party continues to reap the dividends of the establishment built by Raila.

But although the support system appears to remain intact, the core of the party reveals ominous unravelling. Events over the last few weeks show an outfit whose centre is struggling to hold. At the centre of the crisis is the emergence of three camps. The formation of the camps is largely a function of the place of the broad-based government (BBG).

One camp has thrown its weight behind the BBG, committing to support President William Ruto during next year’s general election. Among the vocal voices in this camp include the party leader Oburu Oginga and Chairperson Gladys Wanga. Others are the ‘experts’ in the BBG including Cabinet secretaries John Mbadi, Opiyo Wandayi and Hassan Joho. A section of this camp was reported to have met Dr Ruto late last month to craft a working formula ahead of the elections next year.

Diametrically positioned is the camp that opposes both the BBG and any suggestion of joining forces with the President during the next elections. This camp views Ruto’s administration as irredeemably damaged. Leading voices in this camp include Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Governor James Orengo, and MP Babu Owino.

There is also a moderate camp that appeals for strategic caution. For those in this camp, any move by ODM, especially as regards the next elections, should be carefully weighed. For this camp, ODM should focus on strengthening itself for now and later leverage its strength strategically. Leading advocates in this camp include Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo.

To mitigate the damage from the spiralling situation, ODM needs to do three things. Firstly, the party needs to reconfigure its national leadership. As it stands, the top leadership appears too divided to inspire confidence. The partly leader position should especially be a centre of focus. Unfortunately, Dr Oburu's leadership approach serves to fuel the crisis. Unlike his late brother, he has demonstrated incapacity to steer a divided party.

Tragically, he has taken a partisan position, strongly identifying with the pro-BBG camp, effectively neutering his credentials as a uniting figure to the divided house. Most recently, he outrageously anointed himself as the ODM’s sole presidential candidate should the party opt to field a candidate in next year’s election. Either ODM replaces the party leader with a more politically measured and technically erudite person, such as Prof Nyong’o or Oburu undergoes a radical transformation.

Secondly, ODM should initiate an honest dialogue among the rival factions. Though the differences may appear irreconcilable, they are nonetheless possible to bridge. Borrowing from Raila, it is possible to strike a middle ground consensus in the immediate term for the party to project the much-needed unity for its potency ahead of the 2027 elections.

Thirdly, any reforms should aim to guarantee free, fair, and credible nominations ahead of the elections. Flawed nominations have been ODM’s Achilles heel. Raila’s presence presented a historical antidote that mitigated the damage that arose from the flawed nominations. With his absence, the antidote is no longer there.

Mr Ogutu is a political commentator