Why Ruto risks being a one term president

The popularity and approval ratings of the Kenya Kwanza administration has been been dropping.

Further, and which should raise the antenna for the UDA administration, most Kenyans believe the country is at the worst standing economically, whose dismissal performance in economic growth, business investment and job creation are at the lowest. This could be a strong indicator that the populace may just have begun to think twice and may be shifting support from UDA.

One may then ask why the public goodwill towards government has receded so quickly and the level of public trust on government faded so quickly.

UDA's cluttered agenda and failed promises must rank top. Elected on the platform of bottom-up economic transformation agenda that was meant to economically empower the lower earning cadre of Kenyans, the Kenya Kwanza administration has failed to offer tangible economic solutions and has instead been speaking with a tone of despair rather than hope. It has continued to blame the former administration rather than provide tangible solutions. In the process, the administration has acquired the label "a blame shifter regime".

Taxation on mwananchi's income has accelerated and the government has smashed records as an administration that has daringly and painfully taxed Kenyans like never before. It has wiped smiles from the faces of many Kenyans as it raids their payslips with abandon.

Housing tax

Almost unreasonably, the government is chopping away the now contentious affordable housing tax currently being litigated in court at the unconventional rate of 1.5 per cent of the gross salary of Kenyan employees instead of the acknowledged best international practices of net salary.

The government has adamantly put a 16 percent VAT on fuel, doubling it from 8 percent that was prevailing prior to its taking power in 2022. The trickle effect has been the rising cost in prices of virtually all essential commodities.

Cost of digital money transactions via Mpesa was not left out either and so were the NSSF and NHIF contributions.

Ironically, and to the consternation of many Kenyans, the government issued a notice in a bid to sell “affordable houses” to hustlers in Nakuru at astronomical prices, with a two-bedroom house going for Sh3,150,000 while a three-bedroom house is going for Sh4,250,000. These houses are expected to be bought by the mama mbogas and the hustlers who are not in any formal employment and/or have low or no income surviving at less than a dollar a day. How then does the government expect such Kenyans to purchase the so called affordable houses?

It is worth noting that a casual perusal of our daily newspapers, we see pages and pages of auctioneers advertising for sale properties of Kenyans who have defaulted in payment of loans, which paints a gloomy picture economically to many Kenyans.

The prevailing economic hardship should raise a red flag to the current administration and provoke it to shift its lopsided economic policy of building houses and put emphasis in the economic empowerment of Kenyans first, which should put food on the table for hungry Kenyans.

UDA is getting it wrong and should learn from other countries like Australia, where the government emphasis is to put money in the pockets of citizens by paying them competitive salaries, growing the economy and thereafter supporting first time home buyers with a government grant of $10,000 towards the purchase of their new home.

World over, history is replete with popularly elected presidents who were voted out after their first term in office due to failure to address mundane issues affecting citizens such as obnoxiously high taxes, poor governance and autocratic leadership, low returns from agriculture, unsustainable and unprofitable business environment, collapse of economy, high cost of living and rise of unemployment.

In the United States, President John Quincy Adams's carelessly failed to clinch a second term. His advocacy for a strong central government at the expense of strong federal States largely never resonated with the American citizens. Failure to heed to the concerns of his people placed him in direct clash with the aspirations of Americans who slowly mounted opposition to his policy of creating a strong central government. Inevitably during re-election, Americans viewed him as an enemy of federalism and punished him at the ballot, reminding him that power vests with the people and not him. His failure to read the public mood made him a one-term president.

Herbert Hoover, the 31st president of the United States from 1929 to 1933 who campaigned under the banner of “A chicken for every pot and a car in every backyard”, failed to walk the talk. He spoke to a deep-seated optimism about the direction of the economy and of the country under his leadership but became clueless on economic matters after winning election.

Upon assumption of office, Hoover became a threat to a sustained economic growth and literally brought American economy to its knees, making the country go through its worst recession ever, with banks collapsing and Americans losing their lifetime savings, with a persistent farm crisis shortages of essential commodities like bread. His failure to curb speculation would lead to one of the greatest financial catastrophes that American has ever seen, leading to the collapse of the stock market leaving the country in economic malaise. With public confidence on his leadership eroded coupled with his dismal performance in handling the economy, he was no march for Franklin Roosevelt who consigned him to the calamity of one-term president.

This can be equated with the UDA slogan of the wheelbarrow whereof president Ruto during campaigns told Kenyans “not be consumed by the simplicity of the wheelbarrow, you must know behind the simplicity of the wheelbarrow is the revolutionary bottom-up economic plan that seeks to give jobs to the jobless, promote enterprise for the business community and ensure that farming is modernized…”. The youths are still yet to see the jobs, businesses are closing and farmers are choking under poor returns from farming. The shilling has been on a free fall now trading at the worst high of Sh157 against the dollar, fuel prices have broken the Sh200 mark and bank interest rates are fast going up.

Carter's waterloo

Jimmy Carter, who served between 1977-1981, met his waterloo after addressing unemployment, rising gas and fuel prices casually. As Jimmy Carter sought a second term, the ghost of high unemployment rates, skyrocketing gas prices and shortages at the pump ignited a momentum for his rejection at the ballot. The unemployment rate plus inflation reached a previously unthinkable 21.98 percent, which left him really exposed in the run-up to the ballot. By election time, he was faced with serious trust deficit from the populace and he was sent packing by Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election, winning just six States and the District of Columbia.

If one wants to assess the political cost of slapping citizens with unreasonably high taxes, the fate that befell President George H.W. Bush who served as president between 1989-1993 can be a good example. Within the Republicans, there were high hopes that his re-election was inevitable. To his credit, he enjoyed good ratings and by February of 1991, Bush enjoyed a sky-high approval rating of 89 percent. Unfortunately for the 41st president, he soon blundered and conspired with Congress, which passed legislation that increased taxes, ignoring the prevailing public mood that was not in favour of raising of taxes. Worst still, his pact with Congress meant he was reneging from his famous 1988 campaign pledge not to raise taxes. This move eroded trust among conservative voters who waited for him at the ballot and mercilessly and severely punished him and he lost against Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.

Lastly, though the jury may still be out there, politics of deceit, egoism, abuse of power, chest thumping and failure to appreciate that power is a privilege may have cost Donald Trump a second term. The 45th President of the United States, sought re-election in 2020 but may have been rejected in the ballot largely due to his politics of arrogance, polarisation and divisiveness. While he maintained strong support from his base, his confrontational approach is said to have alienated some moderate and independent voters who were incensed further by his unorthodox communication style and behaviour, both on and off social media that defied American civility.

But these scenarios are not constrained only too far away from home. Even in our own African continent, many presidents who have approached second term re- election with impunity and failed promises, with inability to read the public mood, have miserably failed to clinch a second term. For instance, Jonathan Goodluck served as the president of Nigeria from 2010 to 2015 and was confident of re-election. In the 2015 presidential election, he sought a second term with bravado but was resoundingly defeated by President Muhammadu Buhari due to damning corruption allegations against his administration and a strong desire for change from Nigerians dissatisfied with his leadership style. The public mood of rejection having gained crescendo, and the opposition having united under the All Progressive Congress party led by Muhammadu Buhari, his goose was as good as cooked and he was sent packing.

On the other hand, John Dramani Mahama served as the President of Ghana from 2012 to 2016. In the 2016 presidential elections, he sought a second term but was defeated by Nana Akufo-Addo. Mahama having been inaugurated on January 7, 2013, faced a worsening economic situation in the country. Falling global prices on Ghana’s primary exports as well as increasing public wage costs negatively impacted Ghana’s economy, as did increasing debt. Also affecting the economy were power shortages, which had become an unfortunate hallmark of his administration and led to a nickname for the president that Mahama himself joked about: Mr Dumsor, dum-sor, meaning electricity “off-on” in the local Twi language. The economic woes and power shortages, as well as anger over corruption scandals, frustrated voters as the 2016 elections approached. Mahama was defeated by Akufo-Addo, who won almost 54 percent of the vote. Mahama, who came second with about 44 percent of the vote, conceded and stepped down at the end of his term in January 2017.

Edgar Lungu was sworn in as President of Zambia on January 26, 2015, after the death of incumbent president. A month after taking over, he forced the head of the Central Bank out of office and promised lower interest rate but which he never did. The public debt rose exponentially, and unemployment became the norm. He also became autocratic and repressive, tear-gassing then opposition leader now President Hichilema Hakainde and limited media freedoms. He attempted to seek a second term but was defeated by opposition leader Hichilema, consigning him to be a one-term president.

Jacob Zuma faced multiple challenges during his presidency, leading to his eventual removal from office but it’s the constitutional court that drilled the last nail on his presidency. Faced with myriad of corruption allegations, the Constitutional Court of South Africa ruled against Zuma in cases related to his failure to comply with the Public Protector’s findings regarding the use of public funds for upgrades to his private residence in Nkandla. The court found him in violation of the constitution, provoking massive calls for his exit, leading to his resignation thus prematurely bringing his presidency to a premature end.

Be worried

The “curse of one-term presidents” is real, has happened, can happen and may just happen. Be worried if you preside over economic downturns, controversial taxation policies that lead to waning public support. The Kenya Kwanza administration continues to ignore the pain ignited by high fuel prices and related high cost of living. It has been defiling the Constitution by attacking independent offices and the Judiciary and thus erode public confidence in those institutions. It has continued with its lies week after week well knowing that the Almighty God detests lies as stated in the book of Proverbs 12:22 that states thus: “The Lord detests lying lips, but he delights in people who are trustworthy.”

Mr President, you have failed to uphold your campaign pledges, your policies are detrimental to mama mboga and boda boda the very people who endured the long queues and the scorching sun to vote you. You have turned around and shown them the middle figure. You have left the middle class experiencing economic hardships which consequently has eroded the middle class economic purchasing power. Your policies are leading to closure of enterprises and thus job losses leading to reduced living standards by the larger electorate.

I do submit if you persist as above, you may in the next elections face a widely dissatisfied voting population and encounter difficulty gaining political support and end up being a candidate of the curse of one-term presidents.

Senior Counsel Okongo Omogeni is a former chairman of Law Society of Kenya and the current Senator of Nyamira County