Mudavadi should ignore calls to back others and fight to the end

Baringo Senator and Kanu National Chairman Gideon Moi with ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi addressing residents of Kakamega town on October 29, 2021. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

President Uhuru Kenyatta's exit looms large and politicians have started realigning themselves in readiness for the 2022 elections. His deputy William Ruto is leaving nothing to chance. He has been to every corner of the country but made more trips to Western Kenya—Musalia Mudavadi’s stronghold. Political pundits suppose it is because of the Mudavadi factor.

Majority of Kenyans approve Mudavadi's brand of politics that is gentle and non-polarising. The ANC leaders stands out for his unassuming amiable mien.

Mudavadi could offer the much-needed sober leadership to steer this nation into a better and fulfilling future. Mudavadi’s reserved mien and uncanny sober caution portrays him as a boost to national cohesion, compared to Ruto or Raila’s candidacy that elicits mixed reactions: Strong passions and divided opinion, with a serious task of political balancing.

His competitors know this and always tease him into dropping his presidential bid. President Kibaki was equally gentle but decisive in his candidature. Majority of Kenyans consider Kibaki to be Kenya’s best president ever. Mudavadi can emulate Kibaki and keep his eyes on the top treasure come 2022.

Just like Kibaki, who did not give way to red hot Raila in 2002, Mudavadi must reject calls by those urging him to support ‘others’. Mudavadi’s presidency promises a paradigm shift from a polarised course to a cohesive and optimistic nation that offers equal opportunity for all.

When the Opposition politicians rushed to join the Government, he chose a different path. He chose to remain the opposition pillar, rejecting any co-operation agreements.

It had been assumed that recent increased engagements between him and Uhuru were indications of a budding co-operation. However, refusing to join Jubilee, he has profiled himself as a unique, principled player in the political mosaic currently being woven.

Luhya leader

He now stands in a moment in history, and has given himself great vantage for recasting himself, if only he will conquer it. His new positioning gives him the freedom to criticise government, unencumbered by political ties.

New Jubilee partners like ODM for now must support entirely its initiatives and refrain from criticising its failures, Mudavadi can recast himself as the force playing oversight to government.

The challenge for Mudavadi is that people will compare him to Raila who has kept this fire burning for almost two decades. This is also the opportunity for him to break from the influence of being a Luhya leader to build a national constituency.

As the de facto leader of the Opposition, Mudavadi has opened himself a platform with infinite possibilities for building a credible national political profile. It yields him leeway to navigate 2022 with a free hand and his competitors will be stymied by association with Jubilee’s perceived defects.

Further, each of the opposition leaders coalescing around Uhuru see themselves as the first among equals when it comes to being flagbearer. Each hopes for a “Tosha” moment from Uhuru that favours them.

The battle for the flagbearer will intensify as 2022 nears and as previous elections have proved, it will be replete with casualties and major fallouts.

If Mudavadi decides to stick it out alone to the end, he will have a clear pathway, unencumbered by the kind of distractive battles that saw him shoved to the periphery, and the rug pulled from under his feet in NASA in 2017. He will also be in prime position to welcome, on his own terms, those political players who will have no roof to accommodate them in 2022.

All this presupposes that he is ready to roll up his sleeves and do the dirty work necessary to build a national constituency. He only needs to look at the enormous energy and work rate of Raila and Ruto, to see what it means to mobilise, maintain and sustain a national electoral movement. I hope he has the gumption.

Only by shedding his clothes and diving headlong into ice cold waters will Mudavadi convince Kenyans that he has the gravitas to grab the Kenyan political tiger by the tail. Hence, let Mudavadi offer himself for the presidency and leave it to Kenyans to decide.

Oscar Okwaro Plato is a Political Scientist