The elusive dream: Is the world ready for a Pope from 'fast rising' Africa?

There are three senior cardinals from Ghana, Democratic Republic of Congo and Guinea. [File, Standard] There are three senior cardinals from Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Guinea. The College of Cardinals elects the next Pope guided by tradition and several other factors. As the smoke of mourning continues to rise over the Vatican following Pope Francis's death on Easter Monday, his passing has reignited a familiar yet critical question of whether the time is ripe for Africa to give the world its first Pope. After over a decade at the helm of the Church, the Holy Father, aged 88, succumbed to a severe bout of double pneumonia, according to the Vatican. But as bells toll and black-clad mourners gather at St Peter's Basilica, while the rest of Catholics around the world recite the Rosary and offer Holy Masses for the repose of his soul, a quiet debate about legacy, continuity, and change is taking shape, with African candidates dominating conversations. This is not a new debate. It first captured public attention in 2005 upon the death of Pope John Paul II, again in 2013 when Pope Benedict XVI resigned, and now, it has resurfaced with renewed urgency and greater demographic context. The Church stands at a turning point. The College of over 200 Cardinals, 135 of whom are eligible to vote, is preparing for a conclave that could radically redefine leadership of the world's 1.37 billion Catholics yet again. For all its sacred rituals, the selection of a new pontiff has never been immune to geopolitics, history, or heritage. While the Church projects a spiritual unity that transcends borders, critics argue that the College of Cardinals, tasked with electing the next Pope, often reflects entrenched balances of power shaped by race, tradition, and geography. Despite the Church's claim of universal unity, its leadership decisions remain deeply influenced by historical and regional factors. The election of Pope Francis in 2013 seemed to signal a shift, as it marked the first time in over a thousand years that a pontiff came from outside Europe. However, this unprecedented moment did not fully break from tradition. Jorge Mario Bergoglio, though Latin American, was of Italian descent, suggesting that even a Pope from the global South had to remain tethered to European roots, specifically Roman heritage. Now, with the papal seat vacant again, attention is turning south, to Africa, where the Catholic population has grown exponentially. In 1980, Africa had just 55 million Catholics; today, that number has surged to over 265 million, making it the second-largest Catholic population globally, after South America. While Europe, historically the centre of the Church, still holds the majority of cardinal electors, it no longer represents a majority of Catholics. Latin America may have the largest Catholic population, but Africa is rapidly emerging as the Church's next stronghold. Greg Tobin, author of Conclave and Pope John XXIII, the Good Pope, argues that the time is right for an African pope. He points to the rapid growth of the Church in Africa, despite government opposition, persecution, and violence. "African bishops and cardinals, many of whom are highly educated in the West, are well equipped to lead," Tobin argues. Theologian Jonathan Morris also supports the idea, stating that an African pope would not only represent the Church's fastest-growing region but "could unite diverse ideological groups among the cardinals." Three names from Africa, and 15 others, have emerged as front-runners. Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana, Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea, though he is being considered less likely due to his age of 80. Cardinal Turkson, 76, has long been seen as a potential papal candidate. A biblical scholar and former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, is known for his intellect and charisma. But his candidacy has been marred by controversy, most notably a 2022 incident in which he screened a video at a Vatican meeting warning of Islam's demographic rise in Europe. The backlash was swift, though Turkson later clarified his intent was to critique Europe's declining birthrates rather than attack Islam. "Turkson is a brilliant theologian, but that misstep revealed a political tin ear," says Marco Politi, a veteran Vatican analyst. "Still, his deep commitment to social justice and interfaith dialogue in Ghana keeps him in contention." At 65, Cardinal Ambongo is emerging as a fresher, more dynamic contender. As the Archbishop of Kinshasa, he has been a steadfast advocate for Congo's poor, while skillfully navigating the intricate terrain of Church politics. While many eyes remain on Europe's seasoned cardinals, the numbers tell a different story, one that points south. With more than 260 million Catholics and rapidly growing congregations, Africa represents not just a spiritual haven but also a future anchor of the faith. The continent has one of the highest conversion and baptism rates, especially among the youth. By 2050, Pew Research Center projects that Africa will be home to 1.1 billion Catholics, surpassing Latin America as the largest Catholic continent. In countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo, churches are filled, seminaries flourish, and the faithful express deep devotion to the sacraments and the Magisterium. In contrast, traditional Catholic strongholds in Europe are witnessing a steady decline in church attendance and vocations. Edward Wanyonyi, a researcher in faith and diplomacy and head of research and strategy at Camerafrica Consultants, believes the matter is less about individual merit and more about entrenched global power dynamics. "I lean more towards global power dynamics and not the two Cardinals' qualities," he says, about the leading African contenders. While Wanyonyi acknowledges, "Africa is ready-yes it is, because the cardinality rules are standard across countries," he stresses that the numbers simply do not add up. "Despite posting the second biggest congregation of Catholics after South America, the combined number of cardinals is not anywhere close to Europe and North America combined," he explains. He argues that Africa's vibrant Catholic presence and growing moral authority are still not reflected where it matters most, "at the centre of where decisions are made on papal succession." Wanyonyi further notes that, "globally, Africa is yet to occupy a seat on favourable terms where Europe and North America are competing for the same positions, and the tyranny of numbers favours the latter." In his view, the real question is not whether Africa will produce the next pope, but whether it will position itself as a decisive swing bloc in alliance with South America. The last papal conclave in 2013 made this shift evident. Of the 115 cardinal electors then, 11 were African, a small number, yet reflective of a Church gradually acknowledging its demographic realities. Despite their spiritual dynamism, African cardinals remain a minority in the conclave. Only 18 of the 135 electors are from Africa, compared to 53 from Europe, followed by Asia 23, North America 20, South America 17, and Oceania 4. Eric Shimoli, a communication consultant and devout Catholic and former seminarian, believes the Church's structure allows for universal representation, but tradition and visibility still shape outcomes. "Technically, the Church is one, and in theory, all Cardinal electors should not be influenced by region or interests," he says, noting that even a non-cleric, if a baptised male Catholic, qualifies for the papacy. Still, he acknowledges, "Cardinals have found it fit to elect one among themselves, and that has become tradition." He acknowledges Africa's rising Catholic numbers as a potential advantage but remains skeptical. "If we were to go by the numbers, then Africa stands a good chance," he says. However, he adds, "I doubt we would have an African pope even this time round." His argument is anchored in the limited continental recognition of candidates like Cardinal Turkson or Cardinal Ambongo: "They are hardly known in the rest of Africa. I don't see any doctrinal or critical writing associated with their names that would make them strong contenders." Supporters of an African pope still argue that such a move would not only reflect the Church's present demographic realities but also affirm the universality of the faith. They point to the African church's deep reverence for tradition, its strong clerical vocations, and its moral clarity on issues where other regions struggle for consensus.

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