Diplomatic test in bid to secure Raila AU job amid new hurdles

ODM leader Raila Odinga and former Nigeria President Obasanjo at his Karen residence. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard]

The government is determined to navigate through all challenges to ensure Azimio leader Raila Odinga’s candidature for African Union Commission chairperson, stays on course.
On Wednesday, multiple sources said there are some nations that want to thwart Raila’s bid, and they are ready to present a few obstacles.

Among the hurdles is talk that South Africa is contemplating fielding a candidate, which is against a gentleman’s agreement after having been the first to hold the seat.

Yesterday, National Assembly Defence and Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Nelson Koech, echoed the government’s unwavering commitment to support Raila. He also acknowledged that several nations are trying to hinder Raila’s bid, but reassured that Kenya is well-prepared for the challenge. “We are closely monitoring developments, and any attempts to obstruct Raila’s candidature will be met with strong opposition. Kenya is actively seeking support across the continent to secure Raila’s victory,” he said.

Koech’s statement comes after Kenya encountered resistance from certain quarters advocating gender parity and rotational leadership within the AU Commission, as outlined in the 2018 Kagame Report on Union Institutional Reform.

Koech, also Belgut MP, noted that some countries are trying to throw road blocks in Kenya’s path, using various tactics. Draft proposals suggest prioritising female candidates for the chairperson position, potentially complicating Kenya’s plans.

Charles Wafula, an expert in political affairs, emphasised Kenya’s strategic options to overcome these challenges. He highlighted the complexity of the situation, noting that President William Ruto’s unexpected support for Odinga’s AU bid could have significant implications for Kenya’s political landscape.

He said Ruto’s backing could serve his long-term political ambitions, positioning himself as a pan-Africanist figure and consolidating support ahead of the 2027 elections.

“As discussions unfold at the AU executive council meeting in Addis Ababa, Kenya’s diplomatic efforts will be closely watched. The outcome will not only determine the future leadership of the AU Commission but also have far-reaching implications for Kenya’s political landscape and its aspirations on the continental stage,” said Mr Wafula.

He expressed confidence that, with determination and strategic planning, Kenya can navigate through the complexities and ensure its candidate emerges victorious, solidifying Kenya’s influence within the African Union.

“We failed to allow this document to come up. It shows a handcap on foreign affairs. If South Africa is not in the race, it will be easy for Raila,” Wafula said.

He added: “We should consolidate south and east. This will give Odinga more than 30 votes, and then focus on the northern part of Africa, which looks laid back.”

He said Ruto would also be a beneficiary. “Irrespective of the outcome, Ruto will use it as blackmail in the 2027 vote. He sees far and knows the AU bid splits up Azimio, which is good for him. It also splits up ODM, and I am sure he wants to go for ODM votes and some inroads in Nyanza.”

He added that it is a tactical chase move for Ruto, whichever way it works for him.
“Ruto is propping himself as a leader who can speak on behalf of the continent,” Wafula said.