This year’s Tanzanian elections were like no other – literally. UKAWA — the opposition coalition of CHADEMA, CUF, NCCR-Mageuzi, and the National League for Democracy (NLD) — got thumped by CCM, the reincarnation of TANU, the only party that’s ever ruled Tanzania. CCM’s presidential candidate, John Pombe Magufuli, the chemical engineer-turned-politician, knocked out CHADEMA’s Edward Lowassa, the former PM and long-time CCM stalwart. Mr Lowassa defected from CCM in July — in the eleventh hour in pique — when party elders denied him nomination. Mr Lowassa would put up a spirited fight against Dr Magufuli only to go down in flames. But not before putting a scare in CCM, the political juggernaut. I never doubted Mr Lowassa would be crushed. Final score — 58 per cent to 40 per cent.
I have six unarguable reasons Mr Lowassa became CCM’s roadkill. First — and Kenya is instructive here — last-minute defectors don’t fare well against established ruling parties in Africa. If you doubt me, ask Democratic Party’s Mwai Kibaki who left KANU in a huff in 1991 only to be decimated by President Daniel arap Moi with his fellow oppositionists when the tribe — plus KANU’s anti-democratic tactics and personal egos — splintered them. Mr Lowassa was more CCM than almost any Tanzanian alive. Then — three months before the elections — he became a turncoat. He may have had good reasons for bolting, but the tag of sellout proved too costly. The opposite side knew too much about him and used it against him.