Why the other ‘horses’ could still upset Raila and Ruto calculations

President Uhuru Kenyatta (centre) with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto at the KICC, October 2014. [Collins Kweyu, Standard]

Momentous activities in the Kenyan political landscape attract world attention. The novelty of President Uhuru Kenyatta dumping his deputy William Ruto in favour of Opposition leader Raila Odinga raised eye browses and the need to know why.

It was one of many attractions that made Kenya politically exciting. Ruto also made waves by reframing the national debate as one of class rather than ethnicity. He appears to have magnetism that appeals to the underclass, eats into Raila’s presumed political territory as the spokesman of the ‘masses’, and makes him unique.

While intense Ruto-Raila feud makes it appear as if they are the only presidential hopefuls, current developments show signs of upsetting the “two-horse” mentality. Those developments pertain to evolving confusion in Raila’s Azimio and in Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza.

Both grapple with the divisive but elitist pre-occupation with who should get the deputy presidency, or where the person should come from. Mount Kenya elite in both camps, for instance, hungered for the slot, implied it was conditional to getting Mountain votes, and looked lost as they lost influence.

This elitism would explain Uasin Gishu Governor Jackson Mandago’s reported advice to ordinary people not take political competition seriously. The advice resonated because politicians fight within their groups, among themselves, and against their rivals in other groups or parties. After misleading the public to fight, he claimed, they go and eat together.

Governor Jackson Mandago addresses business groups in Eldoret, January 2020. [Peter Ochieng, Standard]

Within Azimio, there are different points of friction. First, the management of the campaign has structural problems. There are visible and mostly invisible old ODM ‘guards’ jealously protecting their positions as ‘wandani wa Raila’.

Junet Mohammed captured the mentality when he told Mutahi Kagwe to expect to watch the government from a distance. Thus, when Laikipia Governor Nderitu Muriithi was appointed ‘chairman’ of a high sounding committee, he never had chance to take charge; his position quickly fizzled. He is not even in the new Raila chaired Advisory Council that includes Makau Mutua who leads a ‘thinking tank’ comprising Peter Wanyande, Karuti Kanyinga and Paul Mwangi.

Second, there is friction between Jubilee and ODM, and among various supportive parties, over how to apply suggested nomination formulae. While they are in agreement that Raila is their presidential flag bearer, they disagree on zoning for other elective offices.

They discard the ‘kuachiana’ mentality as each party seeks to strengthen its perceived post-election positions. As the new Jubilee asserted it is fielding candidates everywhere and at all levels, except the presidency, others go back to the campaign drawing board in order to protect perceived post-election interests.

Similar challenges are in Ruto’s UDA which transformed itself into Kenya Kwanza. Ruto’s ‘wandani’ jealously guard him as their commodity and try to force conformity which has not gone very well.

As politicians ‘listen to the ground’, they shift positions without blinking which might explain UDA transforming itself into Kenya Kwanza in order to accommodate Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula; sides seemed rejuvenated.

Musalia and Weta had escaped from One Kenya Alliance, PKA, because they did not want to be in Azimio. The accommodation also disrupted previous assumptions within UDA that Mount Kenya had clinched the deputy president slot. Nderitu Gachagua was condemned when he repeated the assumption and Mountain enthusiasm for UDA might slide.

Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula and ANC's Musalia Mudavadi during a political rally in Eldama Ravine, Baringo County. January 26, 2022. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

The sliding enthusiasm for Raila’s or Ruto’s camp gives chance for others. Internal Azimio and Kenya Kwanza points of disconnect open doors for alternative groupings.

If OKA can make up its mind or JB Muturi’s DP rise above shrines in Mt Kenya, they might be nationally felt as viable election horses. With Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi distancing himself from Raila and Ruto, where he throws his weight might be weighty and might upset current calculations.