Why two-horse State House race narrative is erroneous

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga (left) and Deputy President William Ruto chat during Jamhuri Day celebrations at Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi on Saturday, December 12, 2020. [Boniface Okendo, Standard]

Ceteris paribus, Latin for “all things held constant,” is used to predict an outcome with the assumption that all variables influencing that outcome remain unchanged. In life, where all things are in a state of flux, the only constants are death and taxes.

Listening to conversations on the Uhuru Kenyatta succession, one would be forgiven for thinking, ceteris paribus, the presidential elections will be a two-horse race; that Kenyans have a Hobbesian choice of the two horses, former PM Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto, or nothing!

Nothing could be further from the truth! The former PM and his adversary, the DP, are not indispensable fixtures of the country’s political landscape. They are not immune to the vicissitudes of life. No one ever is.

History is replete with examples of popular candidates who never made it to the ballot box on account of ill health. Or those who were barred from contesting at the last minute because of unsettled tax liabilities or other infractions of the law.

And this is a conversation that Kenyans should be entertaining. Because our progressive Constitution does not preclude us from “imagining the death of the president,” as in the days of the recently departed Charles Njonjo, we should contemplate a scenario where either one or both of the favourite “horses” are unable to contest the presidency. After all, constancy over the next few months to the election cannot be guaranteed.

British society, cognisant of the vagaries of life, talks of “the heir and the spare.” This is usually in reference to members of the monarchy or nobility. In such families, two children are desired; one to succeed to a title and the other to guarantee the family line should anything happen to the first. The former then is the heir while the latter is the spare.

Apropos to Kenya, Raila and Ruto are both heirs of their respective parties. They are first in line to succeed President Kenyatta after the elections this year. But who are their spares? Should the heirs fail for some reason, who will guarantee the continuity of the presidency?

All focus has been on presidential candidates with scant attention given to their potential running mates, the spares. Yet these are central to the institution called the presidency. They can either make it or cause it to unravel at the seams as has been reflected in the foibles of the current Jubilee administration.

Truth be told, Raila’s Azimio La Umoja campaign vehicle does not have ascendancy over Ruto’s UDA party. For every person of dubious moral and ethical distinction within UDA, there is a corresponding identical in Azimio so that it seems they are all tarred with the same brush.

The right spare then must be carefully curated, separate from the usual list of political rubble. They must be the right calibre of ethical probity to add value to their respective presidential candidates. Away from highfalutin campaign rhetoric, they must demonstrate a capacity to convert key themes into action points that resonate with citizens.

For instance, Raila’s key message is national unity and inclusivity. He cannot have a running mate given to polemics or associated with negative ethnicity, nepotism or crony capitalism. Ruto, on the other hand, has promised to rebuild our flagging economy.

He must get a scandal-free running mate with a sound economic background and who has not, in the past, been part of any administration presiding over the country as the economy went south.

Presently, alliances are being forged and discarded on the altar of political expediency. Nothing is constant. Central Kenya appears to be the staging ground of a battle royale. Ruto has made inroads in the region, having made it the centre-piece of his campaign strategy.

Raila has the support of an influential but elitist Central Kenya outfit called MKF. But is he their heir apparent or the presumptive heir, merely holding the position until a more suitable homegrown candidate is groomed?

Mr Khafafa is a Public Policy Analyst