History may repeat itself in next year's general election

The month of March is special for us for several reasons and this one in 2016 has faithfully kept its promise. On March, 18, 2002, I was at the Moi Kasarani Sports Complex Gymnasium as then President Moi and leader of the defunct National Development Party Raila Odinga merged their parties.

Raila became Secretary General, replacing the cantankerous Joseph Kamotho (deceased) while Cabinet ministers Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Katana Ngala were elected Vice Chairmen. The other casualty of this our version of Shakespearean Ides of March, was then VP George Saitoti (deceased) who would go ahead to make the famous, but yet ungrammatical prediction; “There come a time...!”

Seven months later, Mr Moi would astonish Mr Musyoka, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga by naming Uhuru Kenyatta, his preferred successor. The three plus Prof Saitoti had each crossed their fingers for months and some even for years, hoping Moi would pick one of them. At that time it seemed that because Kanu had been in power from independence and the country had not experienced any transfer of power, that Mr Moi and Kanu were invincible.

But it would later turn out that the March 18, 2002 merger precipitated the political crisis in the Jogoo party that followed. Mr Odinga left the party with Mr Musyoka, Mr Mudavadi and Prof Saitoti among other oddballs like Moody Awori and William Ole Ntimama. Mr Mudavadi would return to serve as Kenya’s Simon Makonde-like VP. The Liberal Democratic Party then formed the winning coalition with Mwai Kibaki, Kijana Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu’s National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) after Mr Odinga’s clarion call of ‘KibakiTosha’. The loser would be the Kenyatta-Mudavadi and William Ruto collabo. After the 2002 loss, parting ways in 2007, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would meet again in 2013. The Supreme Court confirmed them winners after Mr Odinga’s Cord contested the results.

Why have we gone back in history? This March, the campaign gear shifted in the campaigns leading up to next year’s elections. Kericho and Malindi by-elections gave the bitter rivalry between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta (and with Kanu flexing its muscles) the momentum of the anticipated big race next year. Mr Kenyatta has made it clear he will stick with Mr Ruto, “till death do us part” style.

And where the two have gone, they have done four things: dished out State goodies such as roads, electricity and water; cracked the whip as incumbents are wont to do through threats and chest-thumping; admonished their competitors as noise and trouble-makers; and finally declared like they did while in Kanu in 2002, that their party (not coalition this time) would win and win till after 2032.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have since Kericho and Malindi tried first to ‘forget’ the Malindi defeat, but not without a few hot slaps on the cheeks of Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho. They also have decided to charm the Kalenjin as much as possible. In the process, ‘forgotten’ politicians like Franklin Bett and Henry Kosgey have found State jobs. As one little bird joked, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto have abandoned the ‘digital’ postulation at the altar of ‘analogue’ political schemes.

An election is just that; you can’t tell who might win unless the claimant of triumph in advance knows something others don’t. In March 2002, Kanu claimed victory way ahead, then events quickly shifted, creating a new wave of political realignment that led to its eventual defeat.

So whereas Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s re-election may seem feasible to their backers today, 16 months in politics is a millennium!

Five factors that you are free to argue over, informs my hypothesis. There is disillusionment over the unbridled wave of corruption left, right and centre of Jubilee; the pile of unfulfilled promises stands, perhaps, higher than Mt Kenya. The non-Kikuyu and non-Kalenjin communities are feeling the pain of alienation from the centre of power and you never know what they are thinking about the ogre called ‘tyranny of numbers’ that was used to scare them.

Then there is the unemployment and deteriorating economic situation that Mr Kenyatta and his team have buttered with the backbreaking and self-defeating burden of borrowing and more borrowing from China.

Finally, the mother of them all; post-party nominations period in Jubilee once the two achieve the aim of coercing their supporters into one party. Where will the losers go given the crudity and undemocratic nature of picking candidates?

Of course, one can throw into this mix the fact that pride, complacency and over-confidence has made them write off Mr Odinga while at the same time, forgetting memories of 2002 when a ‘Dark Horse’ emerged in the person of Mr Kibaki who they had written off as a lazy and tired old man, more at peace with his tipple.

But as someone said a long time ago, “History happens twice because people don’t listen the first time.”