Will South Sudan renounce agreements on use of River Nile?

 By Kasaija Apuuli

 

South Sudan is now the newest member of the international community.  Early this year, the region overwhelmingly voted to become independent.

The region is rich in natural resources in form of oil and timber among others. In addition, it is also a riparian state of the River Nile. 

While the masses make merry, the declaration of independence for the South Sudan presents various challenges for the leadership.

First, it must be noted that River Nile is a subject of many bilateral and multilateral pacts signed by Sudan on behalf of all the Sudanese people.  Some of these agreements have caused a lot of rancour among the Nile Basin states because they favour Egypt and to an extent Sudan on the utilisation of the waters of the river.

 

Status quo

How will independent South Sudan behave? Will it attempt to maintain the status quo, which favours the lower riparians in the use of the river?  Will it renounce the agreements reached by Khartoum on the use of the river?

Or will it throw its weight behind the upper riparians who have been seeking to adopt the principle of equal utilisation of the river, which states that riparian states should use an international watercourse paying due regard to the rights of other riparians. 

This principle is the opposite of what Egypt and to an extent Sudan have been advocating. The two have argued that the upper riparian states in the Nile Basin should recognise the historical rights which the lower riparians have over the river as conferred by the 1929 Nile Waters Agreement signed between Egypt and the British colonial administration.

River Nile is the longest international water system in the world. It flows for 6,700 kilometres through ten countries in North-Eastern Africa before reaching the Mediterranean Sea.  It is composed of two tributaries that converge at Khartoum Sudan. The White Nile originating in the Equatorial lakes region of Central Africa contributes 14 per cent of the waters of the Nile while the Blue Nile originating in the high mountains of Ethiopia contributes 86 per cent. The 10 Nile Basin riparian states have a total population of 336 million of Africa’s total of 800 million, and a catchments area constituting 10 per cent of the continent’s land area Tensions over the Nile have of recent increased as a result of spiraling demand for water to generate hydroelectric power, for drinking and irrigation amid acute poverty, food insecurity wrought by cycles of drought and famine, and growing population. 

But one of the most contentious issues about the management of River Nile has been the agreements that govern its use.

For over seven decades between 1890s and 1960s, the British erected a legal infrastructure that subordinated the rights of its East African territories to use the Nile waters to Egypt, ensuring that no future development deemed to reduce the flow of water to Egypt would be undertaken.  For Egypt, control of the Nile is a matter of life and death. Egypt’s historical rights claims over the Nile stem mainly from the Nile Waters Agreement of 1929 signed between Egypt and Britain through the Exchange of Notes, binding the latter, and by extension all its colonies, to refrain from any action regarding the Nile that would diminish the volume of water that reached Egypt. 

 

Prior consent

Its most important clause provided that “no works or other measures likely to reduce the amount of water reaching Egypt were to be constructed or taken in Sudan or in territories under British colony without prior Egyptian consent.”

When Sudan got independent, it sought to review this agreement. The 1959 Agreement between Egypt and Sudan forbade upstream nations to conduct any activity that threatened the water quotas of Egypt and Sudan and prohibited the use of even one litre of water by the upstream riparian states. The two pacts (1929 and 1959) have been contested by the other riparian states.

Over the years, the Nile Basin states have sought to establish arrangements that would promote the equitable utilisation of the river by all. Many of them, however, have not succeeded because of the objections by Egypt and to an extent Sudan.  The most recent is the Cooperative Framework Agreement 2010, which has been signed by the majority of the upper riparians, but Egypt and Sudan have refused to sign because it does not recognise their historical claims on the use of the river.

This has increased tensions with some states like Uganda purchasing military hardware ostensibly to inter alia prepare to defend its interests in the river. South Sudan independence comes at a time when tensions are rising in the Nile Basin. If it decides to uphold the position claimed by Egypt and North Sudan that the two have historical rights over the use of the river, it risks offending the upper riparian states who hosted its refugees during the war and who applied pressure for the successful conclusion of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

If the state of South Sudan decided to throw its weight behind the position of the majority of the upper riparian sates that the Nile Basin states should utilise the river equitably, this again will annoy Egypt and the State of North Sudan. Because North and South Sudan are contiguous, tensions could escalate at the common border.

 

Balancing act

Moreover, Egypt has over the years during the conflict in the Sudan worked tirelessly to maintain the unity of Sudan. It feared an unstable entity in the south would pose a threat to its supply of Nile water. Egypt was worried an independent South would join the groundswell of states objecting to the standing agreements. 

As an autonomous state now, South Sudan faces the challenge of balancing its own interests to use the river Nile for the benefit of its people, with the interests of other riparians, especially Egypt and North Sudan, who may try to cause mischief for the new state, should it adopt a position that does not favour the two in as far as the use of river Nile is concerned. 

 

—Dr Apuuli teaches in the Department of Political Science, Makerere University. Email: [email protected]