Money, party, power and loyal MCAs: Why it will be hard to unseat governors

 Governor Joho addressing his supporters.Recent polls show that Joho, Mutua and Kabogo are way ahead of the pack, and are liKely to retain their seats

Governors are facing the stiffest competition in their re-election run as Kenya heads for the polls in five months.

Senators and MPs are eyeing the governors’ mansions. Those who lost the gubernatorial race in 2013 are making another attempt. In some counties like Machakos and Kisumu, the deputy governors are keen on unseating their bosses, while in Kakamega, a former minister in the county government also wants to be the next county boss.

But even with all that interest, the county bosses have in their political arsenal the power of incumbency, a strong network of contributors and sycophants created over the past four years, and are in control of billions of shillings in public funds, which they can deploy quickly to honour the promises hitherto unmet.

The incumbent governors will be going for their second and final terms. They are known in the county, if not by face, then by name. That name recognition, plus the projects they’re likely to launch within five months, will cement their place in the minds or hearts of voters.

Then, because this is their second term, chances are they packed the county governments with people from their respective strongholds within the counties.

It is this army of county employees, which has made a living for the last five years courtesy of the sitting governors that will campaign for them- for selfish reasons – to retain their livelihood in the county public service for the next five years. There’s no better campaigner than a person keen on self-preservation.

The other factor is money.

Everything about elections is about cash, hard cash. And top parties such as ODM and Jubilee know governors have the resources, so they set Sh500,000 as the nomination fee for governors. Very few aspirants have such loose change to throw on a ticket which they are unsure of.

There’s also the logistics of covering the whole county, with some, like Nairobi, having 17 constituencies, while others, like Kakamega, have 12. It is a vast area, and without money, it is hard to compete.

 While fundraising may come in handy, donors, like every gambler, bet big on people with proven records. A sitting governor trying out for a second term has already proven that he can win elections, and can run a government.

Most of these donors are usually businessmen looking to do business with the county government. They are unlikely to bet small on a governor who has come through for them during his tenure – why kill the goose that lays the golden egg?

Then there’s the matter of face-time. For the past five years, the current governors have been traversing their constituencies talking to people, launching projects, and selling their agenda.

If they solved local problems, suggested by local people— a borehole, a bridge (even a wooden one), a hospital or a road— the eternal gratitude is unlikely to dissipate.

For a governor to lose an election, he must surely have been totally incompetent and unpopular. He must have done nothing at all for the people, and must have been abandoned by the party that sponsored them in the last elections.