Who will take over when Raila Odinga retires?

 Who will be next?

If Raila Odinga retired today, no Luo leader has what it takes to succeed him, observers contend.

Such is the fear of Baba that no elected leaders or those who wish to vie for political office, in future, are willing to speak openly about the son of Jaramogi or Jakom, lest they ruin their chances.

Politicians who had ‘force’ like Kisumu Senator Prof Anyang Nyong’o, his Siaya counterpart James Orengo, former Rangwe MP Shem Ochuodho and former Rarieda MP Raphael Tuju — were cut down to size when they attempted to challenge Tinga. The four joined other political parties and tried to wrestle the Luo political colossus. They failed.

Nyong’o and Orengo, who have since mellowed considerably, had to mend fences with Raila and rejoined ODM before they were re-elected. Tuju and Ochuodho remain in the political cold.

Observers feel this trend of the Luo community being led by one political giant (Before Raila, his father Oginga Odinga was king) will make it difficult for the community to clinch national leadership when Raila retires.

They point out that in central Kenya, Mwai Kibaki, Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua and Paul Muite fought for the presidency in 2013. In 2002, Uhuru stood against Kibaki, while in 1992, Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba went head to head in a political contest won by President Moi.

In fact throughout the Kibaki presidency, Uhuru was in Kanu and was at one time leader of the official opposition, something that is unthinkable in ODM.

The recent rebellion in Luo Nyanza was sparked by Rongo MP, Dalmas Otieno, who, together with Nairobi Governor, Evans Kidero, have been branded traitors by Raila supporters.

A team of youthful MPs who include Karachuonyo MP James Rege, Mbita MP Millie Odhiambo, Ndhiwa MP Agostino Neto and county party bosses Martin Ogindo (chairman) and Charles Ong’ondo Were (vice chairman) were threatened with expulsion when they opposed the choice of the newly elected Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang as the party’s flag-bearer in the by-election to replace Otieno Kajwang’, who died in November last year.

Mbita MP Millie Odhiambo complained that when they point out mistakes in the party, they are accused of dining with the party’s political enemies.

“They brand us as Jubilee moles and demand that we leave the party. Where do they want us to go?” she posed.

Obora Okoth, a political analyst, says Raila has waded through more difficult waters and will survive the current wave of rebellion.

“Once the party elections are over, there won’t be any major fallout since it is too early for real rebels to come out,” says Okoth.

Director of the School of Development and Strategic Studies at Maseno University Prof Fredrick Wanyama says whatever is happening in ODM is normal when party elections approach.

Wanyama opines that the rebellion experienced in the region would have been avoided if Raila encouraged more democratic space within ODM.

“The ODM party leader should allow everyone to speak their mind freely,” Wanyama says.

Prof Frank Matanga, a political analyst and lecturer at the Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology says those advocating for democracy in ODM might cause far reaching political ramifications in Nyanza.

“Rather than opt out, ODM Young Turks want to fight for changes within the party because they have realised that the old guard have been close to Raila but have not helped his cause,” Prof Matanga says. He adds: “Raila could actually work with them as he takes his final stab at the presidency. It is better for him because his old team of allies have not delivered in the last three General Elections.”

Kioko Ireri, a researcher in Political Communication says the ODM old guards should be worried by the disgruntled voices.

“Politics is about presence and being heard. Raila is likely to listen to those who are willing to offer fresh ideas than stick with the familiar faces and fail to clinch the country’s leadership in 2017,” Ireri warns.