Can Cord survive without Baba?

 His Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party having the lion’s share of Opposition legislators

Recent media reports that Raila Odinga (Aguambo) has started an aggressive campaign for his presidential bid in 2017 has caused jitters in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord). Since other Cord principals, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula, have also expressed their interest in the presidency, questions are now being asked whether the Opposition coalition can actually survive without the former Prime Minister putting his back to it.

The fact that Raila is the leader of Cord is not in doubt, at least for now. With his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party having the lion’s share of Opposition legislators in both the Senate and National Assembly, his co-principals don’t wield the political might and influence he commands. But with Cord’s existence apparently hinged on Raila, you can’t help but wonder what the fate of the coalition would be in the absence of Aguambo.

“Does the sun go round the earth or is it the other way round?” was  Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang’s response when asked to comment on that possibility. “Raila is to Cord what the sun is to the planets of the solar system. The coalition can only exist as long as he is in the picture,” added the senator.

The fact that the Opposition is dependent on Raila was evident when he left the country for a two-month retreat in the United States. Though Kalonzo and Wetangula were in town, the Opposition was noticeably mute in Rao’s absence.

“There reached a point where we started praying for a hasty return of Baba to Kenya because his counterparts lack the energy and drive to mobilise and engage the public,” a source who chose to remain anonymous told The Nairobian.

“It had reached a point where ‘rebels’ in the Jubilee coalition were taking up the role of the Opposition. That did not augur well for us ,” added the source.

Regardless of how hard Cord tries to portray an image of equality among the principals, protocol in public functions betrays the obvious about who is really  the first among equals in Cord. While Raila always appears to sit in the centre and speaks last, the right hand side is usually occupied by Wiper leader Kalonzo, while Ford Kenya’s Wetangula is frequently on Raila’s left.

“Raila is the centre of gravity for Cord and there can never be Cord without him. He is the force and face around which the coalition revolves. He is the glue that holds us together. He is the heartbeat of the Opposition,” Senator Kajwang’ added.

But even with ‘Jakom’  around, there are indications that the Cord leaders could be bracing for a major political contest for leadership and the coalition’s presidential ticket in the run-up to the 2017 polls.

During a funeral in Ikolomani, Wetangula suggested that the  Cord ticket in 2017 should be handed to the principal with the highest number of votes in his backyard. The Ford Kenya backyard of Western has the highest number of registered voters totalling about 5 million, followed by Raila’s 3 million in  Nyanza, then Kalonzo’s 1.5 million in Ukambani. It’s obvious Weta was anointing himself as the ideal Cord presidential candidate.

Kalonzo meanwhile had already declared his intention to vie for the office last year, a position that was this year reiterated by his party MPs who recently vowed to back another candidate should the former veep not be handed the Cord ticket. Reminding the Wiper boss that time for the Kamba “to rule the country was ripe,” five legislators and Machakos Deputy Governor Bernard Kiala told Kalonzo to back another person from the community for the race if he is not the one anointed by Cord.

“If he feels he is not fit for the position, then he should back Dr (Alfred)Mutua for the top job because he has what it takes to wrestle with other contestants,” Mwala MP, Vincent Musyoka proposed.

Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University (USIU) agrees with Senator Kajwang’ that Cord would be dead without Raila.

“Raila is the one holding Cord together. If you remove him from the equation, the coalition will collapses like a house of cards. Kalonzo and Wetangula are just tolerated cheerleaders,” the don observed. “In fact, the reason the three are in the coalition is because of their  antipathy for Uhuru. They have nothing else in common,” he added.

He says that although Kalonzo is touted as the second in command in Cord, he is not the automatic heir should Raila leave the scene.

On the issue of succession, Kajwang’ says Raila is a social democrat and that only a social democrat can succeed him. “Being a social democrat means you are driven by a strong desire to uplift the welfare of the people. To succeed Raila, you must be a social democrat, not a capitalist businessman with a lot of money.”

But some might dismiss this position and cite claims that the late Fidel Odinga, a well known businessman, was being groomed to succeed his dad.