Isaac Ruto’s big gamble: How ICC ghosts, mau evictions returned to haunt Raila

 Raila Odinga and Isaac Ruto during a political rally at Moi gardens in Kericho town on July 6,2017

Governor Ruto was to spearhead NASA campaign in the Rift Valley via CCM and was to deliver 1.5 million votes from the region to NASA ICC ghosts, Mau evictions return to haunt Raila as Governor Ruto not only failed to deliver the presidential vote to Raila, he also lost his bid for re-election NASA lost a swing county Raila had won in 2013

In the run up to the August 8 General Election, NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga pulled all stops to convince the Kalenjin community to vote for him.

To bolster his chances, Raila roped in outgoing Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto and his Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) party, offering him a seat at NASA’s high table as a co-principal.

Governor Ruto was to spearhead NASA campaign in the Rift Valley via CCM, a party that looked like it had gained popularity in the South Rift region, especially Narok and Bomet counties. His brief was to deliver 1.5 million votes from the region to NASA.

Crucial vote

From the onset, Raila knew the Rift Valley vote was crucial in his bid for the presidency. After all, it is the vote-rich region that propelled him to within touching distance of the presidency in 2007.

“The Kalenjin are good runners, and they are willing to join us so we can run together in the 2017 polls,” Raila said during one of his many political rallies in the South Rift, where his target was the populous Kipsigis community.

He began courting the support of the community last year when he opposed construction of the Sh34 billion Itare dam. Kipsigis elders were against the project, saying it would kill the tea industry in the South Rift region and cause a number of rivers to dry up. Raila’s voice boosted their opposition.

The NASA leader was even made a Kipsigis elder in a ceremony at the Bomet Green Stadium.

But the Kalenjin nation re-affirmed its support for Deputy President William Ruto and the Jubilee Party.

Governor Ruto not only failed to deliver the presidential vote to Raila, he also lost his bid for re-election as county chief to Jubilee’s Joyce Laboso. As was the case in 2013, Jubilee swept the region.

In Bomet, Ruto’s home turf, President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta garnered 229,581 votes against Raila’s 32,002. In Kericho, Uhuru won with 281,773 votes against Raila’s 19,562. Jubilee won Nandi with 235,739 votes against NASA’s 34,148 as it did Uasin Gishu with 267,392 against 72,574.

Uhuru also won Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot counties by a wide margin, winning by 161,634, 138,755 and 97,677 votes respectively against Raila’s 27,725, 7,046 and 51,930.

He also carried the swing-vote counties of Narok and Kajiado, albeit by a small margin. Raila won Turkana, also by a small margin. 

Political pundits say the outcome of the 2017 elections is a clear indication that the Kalenjin community still harbours a grudge against the former Prime Minister. Others blame disorganised NASA presidential campaigns for the poor showing in the vote-rich region.

According to Philip Chebunet, a political science lecturer, Raila’s utterances on issues surrounding land failed to pay off.

“Although the Mau evictions and the ICC agenda were at play, they were never key campaign issues in the region as they were in 2013. The people had moved on but are yet to forgive Raila,” Chebunet said.

During his time as Prime Minister, Raila spearheaded the reclamation of the Mau forest through eviction of settlers.

The Kalenjin community also point an accusing finger at the NASA leader for the ICC cases against the DP and former Cabinet Minister Henry Kosgei following the 2007-08 post-election violence.

Ruto and Kosgey were at the time high ranking members of Raila’s ODM party.

Political analysts say despite Raila’s assertion that the decision to kick out settlers and squatters from Mau was made by the Cabinet in which the President and his deputy sat, the community is yet to forgiven him.

Raila was at pains to exonerate himself during NASA’s last campaign rally at Sogoo area near Maasai Mau forest, where some 30,000 settlers were kicked out and caution placed on those with title deeds.

He told residents that former Wildlife and Natural Resources Minister Noah Wekesa executed the eviction and should bear the blame.

‘Small mistake’

“He has tried to remove the traitor tag with little success. He lost the community confidence through the Mau issue and isolation of the DP,” says Patu Naikumi, a political science lecturer Maasai Mara University.

But Emurua Dikirr MP Johana Ng’eno says it is high time the Kalenjin community realised Raila is not its enemy.

“Kenya’s three former presidents oversaw evictions at the Mau and nobody harbours a grudge against them. So why do we find it difficult to forgive Raila for a small mistake he committed when he was in government?” posed Ng’eno.