Opposition wave slowly turning into tsunami against Ruto

DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua addresses United Opposition rally at Tononoka grounds in Mombasa, on April 25, 2026. [Omondi Onyango, Standard]

Opposition in Kenya is building a Tsunami. I don’t believe it has no strategy. I think all the top Opposition chiefs, namely Rigathi Gachagua, Fred Matiang’I, Edwin Sifuna and Kalonzo Musyoka are sensing the stars are aligning.

 I by all means understand the incumbent, President William Ruto, has been in politics for four decades and still going strong. However, the campaigns ahead will be one of a kind despite the billions of shillings that are to be spent for the top office.

Allow me to delineate five compelling reasons why, from a purely political vantage point, the Opposition appears to be decisively turning the tables on the incumbent administration.

Firstly, a significant strategic advantage for the Opposition lies in the profound familiarity its leading figures possess regarding President Ruto's political modus operandi. Having collaborated with him for numerous years within the intricate dynamics of Kenyan politics, these key Opposition leaders have gained an intimate understanding of his strategic playbook, his tactical inclinations, and his customary maneuvers. This deep insight positions them uniquely to not only anticipate his political strategies but also to formulate effective, preemptive countermeasures.

Secondly, the Opposition is acutely aware that the Kenya Kwanza government has demonstrably fallen short of its foundational promises and public expectations. This sentiment is underscored by none other than the President himself, who has openly voiced disappointment over his own cabinet's performance, indicating a perceived failure to deliver on key mandates. Consequently, few of the top state officers have managed to generate the crucial political momentum and goodwill that President Ruto desperately requires for the upcoming general election.

The pervasive and escalating high cost of living, for instance, has left a vast segment of the populace disillusioned and increasingly amenable to shifting their allegiance towards a united Opposition. The Opposition has capitalized on this widespread discontent, relentlessly highlighting the government's perceived failures in addressing not only the economic hardships but also the profound frustrations experienced by citizens concerning education, healthcare, and agriculture.

Thirdly, historical precedents in Kenya unequivocally demonstrate that the Opposition is indeed capable of securing an electoral victory. The persistent challenge, however, has historically revolved around allegations of rigging, frequently reinforced by the mysterious cessation of media tallying during presidential elections, invariably leading to highly controversial and contested results. Cognizant of this historical pattern, the Opposition is now strategically building a campaign designed to achieve such a strong and unassailable lead that it would render any attempts to generate contestable election outcomes exceedingly difficult, if not impossible.

Fourthly, a discernible and refreshing degree of humility has emerged among the Opposition leaders, signaling their readiness to coalesce behind any single individual among them deemed most capable of challenging the incumbent. This spirit of collective purpose is increasingly becoming the defining characteristic of their movement. Their respective supporters, recognizing the imperative of solidarity, are vociferously advocating for unity of purpose. In this evolving political climate, any Opposition figure who chooses to pursue an independent path will likely be perceived and condemned by the collective base as a political traitor.

Fifthly, and perhaps the most tangible indicator of the Opposition's burgeoning strength and viability, is the sheer magnitude of the crowds it consistently draws. While it is acknowledged that political rallies often involve significant mobilization efforts, the overwhelming numbers of citizens who voluntarily turn out for Opposition gatherings speak volumes. These impressive turnouts narrate a compelling story of growing public engagement and support.

As it stands, the Opposition's voter base is expanding at an accelerated pace, paralleled by a palpable surge in confidence among its leading candidates. Having articulated these observations, I do not, however, entirely discount the possibility of the struggling broad-based government mounting a robust and aggressive campaign aimed at deflating the Opposition's escalating popularity. Yet, I find myself yearning for a more concrete and articulate vision of what the Opposition truly stands for beyond critique. Even more critically, I would be keen to understand what the incumbent broad-based government intends to do better or differently now, given its current trajectory has not unequivocally demonstrated its capacity to genuinely improve the lives of ordinary Kenyans.

Dr Mokua is the Executive Director, Loyola Centre for Media and Communication