Nothing new at all as BBI outwits its ardent supporters

Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli with Siaya Senator James Orengo at a fundraiser at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Secondary School in Bondo yesterday. (Collins Oduor, Standard)

It was billed long before its release, as Kenya’s blueprint to happiness. Yet after the initial eagerness about the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report is over, Kenya’s political class is likely to be a little more divided and the citizenry a little more confused than it was before.

Already, at the Bomas of Kenya where the report was formally launched, there were varied dramas that spoke of compound fractures in the political arena. These dramas may not be separated from the report, even as both herald fresh contestations ahead.

The ending week is, accordingly, likely to be remembered as the curtain raiser to widened rifts within Jubilee, on the one hand and possible fresh disputes between ODM and Jubilee, on the other. If President Uhuru Kenyatta has enjoyed a honeymoon of sorts with ODM leader Raila Odinga, the honeymoon may very well be looking at its sunset in the eye, owing to the underwhelming nature of the report.

Conversely, the happenings around the report, even way before its release, have generated furious heat and bad blood within Jubilee. Public disagreements between the Kieleweke and Tangatanga factions over the BBI have all but ripped the ruling party into tatters. The drama at the unveiling has not helped matters at all. While it displayed the bile within Jubilee in public space, it also gave ODM the opportunity to gloat about Jubilee’s woes and to stoke the fires further. 

Deputy President William Ruto was locked outside the presidential waiting room, as the President conferred with Raila behind closed doors. Suna East MP Junet Mohamed could not help gloating openly and throwing snide remarks at Jubilee, over “their own internal wrangles.” His remarks tickled President Kenyatta. They sent him into titters and stitches, as his deputy looked on, baffled. Senate Majority Leader Kipchumba Murkomen lost his calm and burst into a public display of anger.

Gone are the political lovey-dovey days between the President and his deputy. The President would appear to have burnt the bridges they built together for their journey to the Presidency. Once he got to the State House for his second term, the President sought to build new bridges with Raila, his traditional arch rival.

The circumstances that forced them together are common household knowledge. Their handshake of March 9, 2018 is the kind of stuff legendary narratives are made of. It brought to an abrupt stop a festering political climate and ushered in a whiff of peaceful fresh air, in the wake of a most divisive presidential poll. With it, the BBI was born. The outputs of its nine-point agenda, in search of a paradise, have been anticipated with batted breath for the past 15 months.

Yet, is this promising to be the start of fresh political woes? Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli has been the first person off the blocks. A charged Atwoli on Thursday told the press that the BBI report had not lived up to expectation. His focus is, of course, on power sharing in the Executive, rather than on the rest of the report. A close associate of the ODM leader, Atwoli has been one of the most voluble advocates of the BBI.

Demonised voices

Atwoli has been among those who have been berating people they said “were opposed to the BBI”. When other voices called for level-headedness and suggested that the country should wait for the report before deciding on it, this lot demonised such voices. They cast them in the mould of disgruntled and selfish individuals who did not mean well for the country. 

It is the big irony of history that now, with the report out, Atwoli has been the first to cry foul. Not long ago, the Cotu secretary general was on an evening TV show, saying he had sat at the table where power sharing had been discussed and that this would soon be reflected in the BBI. It turns out that what is in the report is not what some of the people who may have been at the table expected – if there was a table.

The report has proposed that there should be created the position of a prime minister to be appointed by the president. The premier should come from the party with a majority of members in the National Assembly, or the largest coalition of parties. If neither is the case, then the party that “appears” to have the majority will take this position.

The premiership in the BBI report is very weak. It lacks meaningful political clout. The premier will be a nominee of the President. He can also be dismissed by presidential decree. This is to say that there will be no wasting of time through tribunals and other legalistic formalities. The President will simply say, “I have today removed someone from the office of Prime Minister.” And that will be it.

Plum jobs

Atwoli and like-minded persons expected a powerful premier in a proper parliamentary system of government. In his Thursday address to the media, he spoke of a premier with two deputies. There would also be two deputy presidents. And there would be an assortment of other high-level public service jobs, all of which are not in the BBI report.

Clearly the Cotu boss is speaking for many more people. There was also the expectation that a new tier of devolved government, clustering together several counties, would be born. This has not happened. A number of retiring governors, who had looked forward to this as their next port of call, will not be happy people.

The biggest loser in this drama, if there are losers, is ODM. First, they treated BBI like their exclusive space. Second, they raised very high expectations, promising “a tsunami” that would sweep those who did not support the BBI to the Indian Ocean. The leadership of the party was averse to any suggestions that there should be further scope for conversation on the report when it should eventually be published.

Kenyans will be wondering for some time about what exactly happened. What went wrong? Did someone throw the ODM leader under the bus? How long, and how far, can they go before crying foul? Or will they take it stoically within their stride and move on?

The trouble is that they already said there would be no debate about the report. Did someone trick them? How will they turn around and call for debate and variations to the report? Despite the humiliation at Bomas, the Deputy President must be one happy person. BBI was proclaimed to be competition between him and Raila. Ruto has nothing to lose, regardless of what happens to BBI report, provided it remains intact. Whether it is sent to a referendum for a vote, or that it goes through Parliament, the difference is the same.

In effect, this report changes nothing, except titles and the possibility that it could bring Raila to the present Parliament as the Leader of the Opposition. The proposed premier’s position is effectively the Leader of Majority, presently held by Jubilee MP Aden Duale.

Many other useful suggestions have been made in the BBI Report. However, they are likely to be drowned in political noise about the Executive.

The emerging posturing about whether the decisions should be made in Parliament or through a referendum are harbingers for things to come. Brutus in Shakespeare’s play, Julius Caesar, famously said, “There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune.” Which fortunes will the emerging tide lead to?