Election 2027: Why Governor Kihika is walking a tight rope

Nakuru Governor Susan Kihika. [File, Standard] The collapse of the Kikuyu-Kalenjin power-sharing pact at the national level is redefining the political trajectory of the populous and multi-ethnic Nakuru, which is dominated by members of the two communities. The evolving political dynamics have put the re-election of Governor Susan Kihika in a precarious position, considering that she was propelled to the office by a strong wave of the UDA party that swept across the county during the last general election. The political leadership in Nakuru has, over the past three general elections, been determined by the political marriage between the two communities who farms close to 80 per cent of voters in the county. Political analysts argue that for several decades, the governance process in Nakuru has been politically negotiated to accommodate the interests of key competing political forces rather than being policy-driven. The political marriage was started by President William Ruto and his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, in the 2013 general election, following the 2007/2008 post-election violence that rocked the country, with Nakuru county serving as the epicentre of the politically instigated clashes. The duo had been arraigned at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for allegedly masterminding the violence that resulted into crime against humanity. The two were elected to office through the support of the solid backing of the two ethnic communities. Although President Kenyatta reneged on his earlier pledge to support the election of President Ruto in the 2022 elections after completing his term of office, the members of the Kikuyu community rallied behind Ruto's candidature during the 2022 election and secured his win. However, the disagreements between President Ruto and impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who was his running mate, have altered the political arithmetic both at the national and county levels, especially after Gachagua was bundled out of office. The populous Kikuyu community in Mt Kenya region, which forms the largest voting bloc in the country have been gravitating towards Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), with the Kalenjin community rallying behind President Ruto's UDA party. The evolving political scenario at the national level has sent ripples down the Nakuru county, where a large section of the Kikuyu community has thrown its weight behind Gachagua, hence abandoning Governor Kihika for her continued association with the president. As the Kikuyus who form the largest portion of the voting bloc in Nakuru county have been gravitating towards their counterparts in the Mt Kenyan region, currently under the political stranglehold of the impeached Deputy President. Kihika, who is a trailblazer in both Nakuru and national politics, is caught up in a complex web of competing ethnic politics and rivalry that is impacting her re-election bid. The governor was first elected as the first female Speaker for the Nakuru County Assembly, then as a senator and now as the governor. As the Kikuyus accuse her of failing to represent their interests and her continued association with President Ruto, members of the Kalenjin community have, on their part, accused her of giving them a raw deal in the appointment of her cabinet. The Kalenjins have, over the past three years, accused the government of short-changing them in the appointment of key positions in the county government, unlike her predecessors, Kinuthia Mbugua and Lee Kinyanjui. Scores of candidates have declared their interests to run for the gubernatorial seat. They include Geoffrey Mwangi, a former chief executive officer for the defunct National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), associated with the Gachagua-led DCP party and Joel Kairu, a former speaker of the Nakuru County Assembly associated with the Jubilee Party. There are also indications that the immediate former governor, Lee Kinyanjui, currently the Cabinet Secretary for Trade and Investment, is likely to join the race. Kinyanjui has been quietly making inroads in the county by engaging voters both privately and during state events in the region. Two months ago, Kihika was engaged in a bitter spat with a section of the Kalenjin community leadership from outside the county who had met with a section of local community leaders in Rongai constituency to audit her performance as a governor. Kihika accused the Kalenjin community leaders, who included Senate Majority leader Aaron Cheruiyot and scores of MPs from Kericho and Baringo counties, of advancing ethnic based politics in Nakuru county. A section of Kalenjin elders from Nakuru who attended the meeting censured the governor for her outburst and explained that the meeting was intended to discuss the performance of the country government and evaluate its development agenda for the people who voted for it. The government had previously fallen out with Kalenjin MPs in Nakuru, namely, Paul Chebor (Rongai), Alfred Mutai (Kuresoi North), and Joseph Tanui (Kuresoi South), and the County Woman Representative, Liz Chelule, who accused her of undermining them and failing to implement projects in areas dominated by members of the community. The leaders had also accused her of discriminating against members of the community in appointments made within the county government. However, President Ruto brokered a political truce between the leaders and the governor after she was heckled and publicly humiliated during a presidential function at Karirikania area in Kuresoi area. Political analysts argue that as the clock ticks towards the 2027 general elections, Governor Kihika is walking a political tight rope as she appears to have been under siege from two fronts, which formed her main political base in the past elections. The analysts argue that the governor needs to re-evaluate her political strategy to navigate the delicate political landscape that is rapidly evolving in the county, with the two communities being the key political actors. Kabue Mathenge, who has coordinated former President Mwai Kibaki's election campaign in the Rift Valley region, argues that Nakuru's politics were shaped largely by the Kikuyus numerical strength in the area and the Kalenjin community's political cohesion, which demands a share in the county government. "One requires sobriety and political acumen to balance the two distinct political forces. That is why over the past three general elections, the governor has been a product of ethnic coalition holding to defend both the Kikuyu and Kalenjin interests in the county," Mathenge told the Sunday Standard. He added, "With Susan Kihika's claims of external Kalenjin forces mobilising against her leadership and the political spat she is engaged in with Gachagua, it is apparent that the Kikuyu-Kalenjin coalition which propelled her to office has collapsed and she must go back to the drawing board." Mathenge further stated that the Kihika administration had boxed itself into a corner where it is now perceived by the Kalenjins as being pro-Kikuyus, while on the other hand, the Kikuyus were perceiving it as being pro-Kalenjins. "Any regime which is held with utter contempt and mistrust by what was its main political base and which propelled it to office is standing on slippery ground. We now have two parallel centres of power, with both the Kikuyus and Kalenjins pulling in different political directions and each camp mobilising against the governor," the political analyst stated. Mathenge, however, stated that the Kalenjin community could still give the governor another chance, considering that she was supporting President Ruto's re-election bid. "If the Kalenjin were to throw their weight behind the governor, she has the capacity to put up a brave fight, considering that there is also a possibility of the Kikuyu splitting their votes, and the minority communities opting to support the governor," Mathenge said. Another political commentator, Andrew Nyabuto, said Governor Kihika was a victim of a rapidly changing political matrix influenced by "Kalenjin-Kikuyu ethnic conflicts and interests." Nyabuto observed that although the governor was propelled to office by a strong UDA wave backed by the voters from the two communities, their interests have changed with each community charting its own political destiny to the detriment of the governor, who is seeking another term. "With evolving political dynamics, the governor must go back to the drawing board and formulate new strategies to recapture the seat in the 2027 elections. She cannot use the 2022 strategies as a new political dawn has set in," Nyabuto stated. However, Ruto argued that Nakuru, being at the centre of the Rift Valley region, which is the political bedrock of President Ruto, there is a possibility of the Kalenjins softening their stand against the governor should the president talk to them. "There is no other formidable candidate who has come up to contest for the Nakuru gubernatorial seat on the UDA ticket except Kihika, who still has some networks in the county and has massive financial resources," Nyabuto argued. He observed that if the governor manages to mend the differences with the Kalenjin community, she has an edge over candidates as she will be starting the race with a huge portion of the community's votes, and also the fact that some minority communities in the broad-based government will rally behind her candidature. On his part, Cleopas Isiaho, who has been previously involved in political activism in Nakuru region, argued that the minority communities, including the Luhyas, the Luos, the Turkana, the Somali and Maasai communities, support Kihika for incorporating their members in her administration. Isiaho argued that if Kihika manages to settle her differences with the Kalejin community, she still has high chances of election, considering that the Kikuyu community is unlikely to have a single gubernatorial candidate due to differences between DCP and Jubilee leadership. "The governor needs to work hand a get a slice of the Kikuyu votes in her basket as this will assist her to consolidate her ground while also using the advantage of the incumbency," Isiago said. A former councillor in the defunct Nakuru County Council, Joshua Toroitich, stated that although members of the Kalenjin community had fallen out with Governor Kihika, they were unlikely to support a DCP candidate due to political differences between Gachagua and President Ruto. Toroitich added that Gachagua's abrasive style of politics did not go well with sections of communities in Nakuru and other parts of the Rift Valley region. The former civic leader said that whereas the Kalenjin community in Nakuru county still wants to work with the Kikuyu, it was important that the Kikuyu community front a gubernatorial candidate who enjoys the confidence of all the communities. Both Isiaho and Mathenge argue that former governor Lee Kinyanjui would receive sizeable support from the Kalenjin community if he joins the race. Moese Essekon, a political activist, argued that the governor was standing on s shaky ground considering that she no longer had the support of both the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin community. Essekon added that although the Kalenjin community had not identified a gubernatorial candidate, there was a possibility that the majority of community members would support Kinyanjui if he threw his hat in the ring. He said the majority of Kikuyu community members who were with Kihika in UDA had now shifted to DCP. "The president had calmed down the Kalenjin community, but the governor lacked political tact and continued antagonising leaders from the community, hence widening her gap with voters from the community," Essekon said. He said the governor would be navigating a complex ethnic cobweb as she seeks to defend her seat in 2027.

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