Israel seeks greater Zionist State in Somaliland gambit

Somaliland Mission premises at Runda, Nairobi on May 29, 2025. [Boniface Okendo, Standard] The intervention of Israel in Somaliland is likely to complicate peace and security in the Horn of Africa and could create further chaos in Gulf of Aden maritime trade. Geopolitics experts say the Jewish State is more interested in advancing its own expansionist and security ambitions than in the welfare of the people in Somaliland Kamukunji MP Yusuf Hassan, a member of the National Assembly Foreign Relations Committee and commentator on political developments in the wider Somalia region, says Israel will ultimately fail to achieve its objectives. "I don't read much in terms of substance in this so-called recognition of Somaliland by Israel, because it is a desperate State diplomatically. It may be very powerful militarily, with a strong partnership with the US, but diplomatically Israel is isolated, condemned by almost the entire world," says Hassan. Indeed, at almost every United Nations vote on Israel's human rights violations in Palestine, the US has repeatedly used its veto power to shield Israel from unilateral sanctions. Israel is seen to be desperately seeking partners, including using breakaway regions like Somaliland to assert its influence in geopolitics, probably with the silent backing of the US. "The UN Charter says States are free to make their own decisions on which countries to recognise," says Dr Mumo Nzau of the University of Nairobi. "Despite that, countries generally take collective positions and agree not to interfere with each other's sovereignty and internal affairs." Peter Kagwanja, Chief Executive of the African Policy Institute, says he is uncomfortable with any country recognising another when it is not recognised by the United Nations. Such actions, he argues, can create anarchy and insecurity, especially in Africa where boundaries were largely determined by colonial powers. Instability in Somaliland should concern Israel, given that the North East region of Khatumo has decided to leave the British Somali region and rejoin the Federal Republic of Somalia. Hassan notes that neither Ethiopia nor Kenya can afford to recognise Somaliland because of their historical complexities regarding past secession attempts by Somali groups in Ogaden and the Northern Frontier District (present day Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Isiolo and Turkana counties). On January 1, 2024 Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with former Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi, a deal that would allow Ethiopia to build a naval base in Berbera. The move angered Somalia, which accused Ethiopia of interfering with its territorial integrity and sovereignty by leasing a 20 km stretch of coastline for a marine base. Abiy, however, said the MoU would strengthen security, economic, and political partnerships between the two countries. The deal attracted attention from major world and regional powers because of the strategic position of the Horn of Africa in maritime and military operations in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. It is notable that Ethiopia remained silent when Israel declared its interest in Somaliland, perhaps due to its sensitive position as host of the African Union (AU) headquarters. The AU, along with other continental bodies such as the Arab League and regional economic blocs in Africa, has rejected Israel's recognition of Somaliland. Somaliland is in a weak position economically. It prospered for about 30 years after 1991, but conditions have deteriorated over the last four years. By contrast, Somalia appears to be stabilising under President Hassan Sheikh Mahmud, with many European countries reopening embassies in Mogadishu and resuming trade. Sanctions on arms imports have been lifted and Somalia has joined the East African Community, and it currently serves as a non-permanent member and chair of the United Nations Security Council. Why, then, is Israel's recognition of the breakaway country causing so much attention and tension in the region? Experts argue that Israel's involvement in political tensions around the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea could further destabilise the Horn of Africa. Dr Mustafa Ali, director of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, says Israel could be advancing its pursuit of the US-brokered Abraham Accord, which normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco since 2020. "The recognition of Somaliland is creating challenges in the Middle East because it is more about the interests of Israel and the US than enhancing regional security," says Mustafa. He recalls Israel's past intention to disrupt the River Nile for Egypt due to its historical conflicts and desire to control the Red Sea basin. Israel, he says, is not only complicating peace and security in the Horn of Africa but may also create disaster for a region already facing multiple conflicts. "Israel is making a miscalculated move that may serve its short-term tactical interests. It likely wants Somaliland to join the Abraham Accord," Mustafa adds. Djibouti is already a garrison city with military bases operated separately by China, Russia, and the US. The US is reportedly prepared to move into Berbera in Somaliland, particularly after Israel's recognition. Prof Kagwanja also notes that clan dynamics in Somaliland will complicate Israel's plans, as the region it seeks to occupy is situated between an area rejoining Somalia and another gravitating towards Djibouti. Hassan says Somalia's North West region of Somaliland will not permit a foreign power to construct a military base. The North East State on Tuesday this past week expressed full support for the federal government's decision to annul all agreements with the UAE, reinforcing Mogadishu's authority over national ports and strategic assets amid escalating tensions with Somaliland. In a statement, the North East State described Somalia as "one sovereign, united, and indivisible" and reaffirmed that all Somali territories, including Somaliland's port of Berbera, fall under federal jurisdiction.

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