The contested atmosphere and seeming organisational deficiencies of the polls raises significant concerns over the potential conduct of the election, and the reaction to its result. To date, the elections lead-up has been characterised by conflicting opinion polls, leaked documents, debate no-shows, enforced disappearances and desperate political manoeuvres. In perhaps the most dramatic development to date, Chris Msando, an IEBC ICT official was found murdered on July 31. Msando’s death is the latest sign of the raised tensions and risk of volatility ahead of the elections.
While Kenya has proven its resilience post crisis, there are renewed concerns circulating around the prospects for stability. The most decisive triggers that will determine the country’s political stability include the general conduct of IEBC, reactions of the losing party (presidential), the robustness of the security infrastructure and the will of the people.