Opposition should follow the 2015 Nigerian political recipe to win 2017 poll

It is 2017, as political scientists will say the wheels are begging to turn with candidates declaring interests, civil servants resigning to engage actively in politics, political players selling off their properties and digging up savings to finance political activities. While the Kenyan presidential election is anticipated to be a closely contested race, there are still doubts that it can be possible to unseat an incumbent president. Since independence all sitting presidents in Kenya have had their second or even third term using the principle of ‘the end justifies the means. In Nigeria, the doubts were so clear especially after the previous elections in 2007 were handled shambolically evidenced by massive irregularities. So when Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives’ Congress (APC) party was declared the winner of the election. The Nigerian democracy entered a new stage that has contributed to set the standard for coming elections in Africa. It was after the Buhari win that the opposition parties in Africa gained momentum fired up their supporters and this has led to significant change in African political topography. This is evidenced by the electoral victory of Nana Akufo Addo over incumbent John Mahama in the recently concluded elections. In Gambia Yahya Jammeh the authoritarian president who ruled for 22 years got a surprise defeat after being trounced in the polls by property developer Adama Barrow although now the incumbent is complaining of irregularities. To capture power it is, therefore, imperative for the Kenyan opposition to benchmark from the then Nigerian opposition led by Buhari . First it is on the conduct of elections far they have done well by insisting on the reforms on the IEBC the Issack led commission is now heading home and in a few weeks now we Kenyans shall know the crème of the electoral commission. In Nigeria, it was, in fact, one of Goodluck Jonathan’s first decisions as incoming president that eventually paved the way for his departure. That decision was to appoint Attahiru Jega as chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Jega has since led the monumental task of reforming the Nigerian electoral process in an impartial way, which, together with the weak performance of Jonathan as president and a united opposition facing a crumpling ruling party, has made a historical defeat of an incumbent president possible. The reforms included an introduction of Biometric Permanent voter cards and electronic card readers for identifying voters. Just like in the Kenyan context it was fiercely contested by an increasingly distressed ruling party who saw the possible avenues for rigging diminishing. New strategies for steering the election result were however developed. Just like INEC made it harder to rig in Nigeria the Kenyan opposition should continue to reject calls for a manual back up in the coming elections. Up to now, we have seen reforms in the IEBC right from the dismissal of CE Oswago and the ousting of the commissioners and introduction of minimum electoral reforms by the Joint Select committee of both houses. The opposition should insist on total transparency of elections priority being given on registration and identification of voters not forgetting the transmission of results on the Election Day. Perception on the performance of the incumbent. Political scientists argue that politics is all about perception. This is what really matters. In Nigeria, Jonathan lost support in most parts of the country and especially in the southwestern and north-central parts. The lackadaisical attitude to the Boko Haram insurgency that had beset northern Nigeria during Jonathan’s tenure made both Nigerians and international observers questioned the ability of Jonathan to tackle the insurgency. Jonathan’s record was further weakened by widespread poverty and endemic corruption that he was unable to address. Africa’s biggest oil producer and its largest economy had 60 percent of the population living below the poverty line of 1.25 dollars a day at the same time as the national lawmakers were assessed to be the highest paid in the world with approximately 1.5 million dollars a year. The same case happens in Kenya with majority of Kenyans living below the poverty line a significant majority earning less than 1 dollar a day. Widespread corruption in the government has also been witnessed evidenced by mega scandals there is also the lack of the political will to curb corruption. Ethnic imbalances on appointments have also made the government to be viewed as a Central-Rift government putting the ‘Tuko pamoja’ slogan to question. The scaling down of employees by cooperates also shows that despite the economic growth on paper the reality on the ground is that Kenyans. Because politics is about perception all these shortcomings just like those of Jonathan present Uhuru Kenyatta a weak candidate against the opposition Building of a strong joint opposition coalition. In Nigeria’s 2013, the four major opposition parties came together to form the APC in an attempt to challenge the ruling PDP and president Jonathan. Prior to the elections , All Progressives Congress was formed as an Alliance of four opposition parties, The Action Congress of Nigeria, The Congress for Progressive Change, The All Nigeria Peoples Party, and The All Progressives Grand Alliance Its primaries, also held on December, were won by retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari who defeated Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, former Vice-president Atiku Abubakar, Imo state Governor Rochas Okorocha and newspaper editor Sam Nda Isaiah. The opposition in Nigeria presented a single candidate to face off Jonathan a thing that greatly improved the chances of them winning the election. The opposition in Kenya should also encourage the idea of a super alliance with all the parties outside government finding space in it. Unseating an African president should not be a man show rather it should be a collective effort to restore the dignity of the country. It should not be an agenda of any one party but the agenda of all the opposition parties. Just like in Nigeria ambitions should be checked by a free and fair joint nomination to get a flag bearer and his running mate to prevent a possible fall out of the opposition partners. At the same time it should not be winner take all, rather it should be a collective bargain. Cut-throat political competition should be sponsored in rift valley with key point men being Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto and Senator Gideon Moi. The Nigerian experience of unseating a seating president should be perfectly replicated in Kenya taking into consideration Harold Laswell definition of politics ‘who gets what when and how’ spicing it up with what most political scientists say ‘power is not given, it is taken’

Opposition should follow the 2015 Nigerian political recipe to win 2017 poll

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