Just like in the US where there are two powerful political parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, Kenya has two eminent coalitions; Jubilee and CORD.
While Jubilee has already identified its presidential flag bearer for the 2017 elections, CORD is yet to.
Jubilee is consolidating its political strength by penetrating CORD’s strongholds. The recent defections are Jubilee’s harvest. Some observers are saying that Jubilee will win the next elections hands down.
But keen observers are hesitant to write off CORD till the last whistle is blown. CORD is keeping both allies and foes guessing who will be the flag bearer. Some are interpreting it to mean that the coalition will break. Wrong.
In politics, there is more to expect. For example, majority think that Raila cannot shelve his presidential ambitions. Contrary to this belief, he may quit the race and endorse a colleague just like he did with Kibaki in 2002.
If he endorses Kalonzo as the flag bearer to fulfill his 2013 agreement, if any, and bring Mudavadi as running mate; it will complicate Jubilee’s calculations. Don’t write off Raila, until the whistle is blown.