NAIROBI: The country is likely to face a food shortage in the coming months, according to a new report.
Tegemeo Institute of Agricultural Policy and Development attributes the situation to delayed planting of maize in the South Rift region. "The early harvest that usually comes from the region cannot be relied upon until August since the planting season began later than usual due to the delayed onset of rains," said Tegemeo Senior Research Assistant Institute Joseph Opiyo.
"Subsequent monitoring also indicates that Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MNLD) has been reported in some parts of South Rift, which may also adversely affect the quantities of harvest from the region," he added. Wheat and cassava production also registered net declines of 35 per cent and 5 per cent respectively in the last three years, starting from 2012.
The Ministry of Agriculture in its May 2015 Food Security Situation report showed that despite food stocks, especially cereals, reducing in certain regions as a result of below-average harvests over the last two seasons, the national food security situation continues to remain stable.
The ministry also estimated the national maize stock available to be 7.2 million bags as at the end of May 2015, with expected imports of about one million bags between June and September from neighbouring countries to raise the stock to 8.2 million bags.
"Assuming a 3 per cent use on manufacture of feeds and on seed with a national monthly maize consumption of 3.34 million bags, the maize stocks available for food as at end of May would last the country up to the first week of August, hoping that harvesting will have started by then," said Opiyo.
Opiyo said the food situation needs close monitoring to avoid volatility in food prices or food shortfalls that might threaten food security since farmers are holding 24 per cent of the available stock.
He further revealed that the national maize production and yield in 2013 and 2014 has been on the decline mainly due to rainfall variability and MNLD, which has led to crop losses in some regions. Other factors include inadequate funding of the fertiliser subsidy programme and late release of funds, which affect timely delivery of the inputs to the farmers.
Tegemeo is a policy research institute under the Division of Research and Extension of Egerton Univeristy.
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