NAIROBI, KENYA: In the 19th century, a group of South American fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru discovered that sometimes, especially around Christmas, warm water would arrive off the coast of South America. During this period, the fishermen noticed that fish became scarce and at certain times could completely disappear, affecting their fishing businesses. The fishermen termed this phenomenon El-Niño, Spanish for ‘The Christ Child’, since it occurred about the same time as Christmas.
During an El-Niño episode, warm ocean currents usually develop in the Pacific, between northern Peru and Indonesia. Since the Pacific Ocean plays a huge role in the global climate, the El-Niño phenomenon has a massive effect on the weather patterns all over the world as well.
The event leads to higher temperatures, heavier downpours, prolonged droughts, floods and other extreme climatic conditions in several parts of the world. El-Niño occurs every two to seven years and normally lasts 12 to 18 months. To date, scientists have not fully understood how exactly El-Niño forms.
Between May 1997 and February 1998, the world experienced one of the strongest El-Niño episodes in the last 150 years. Kenya, for example, witnessed continuous heavy rainfall, particularly in November and January, with one of the heaviest precipitation events ever recorded in the country.
The heavy rains set off widespread landslides and severe floods, which caused thousands of deaths, extensive damage to infrastructure, homes, business premises and crops. The event also increased incidences of water-related diseases such as cholera, malaria and Rift Valley fever in several parts of the country.
Recently, climate scientists revealed that there are signs in the eastern Pacific Ocean similar to those observed in 1997, at the start of the 1997/1998 El-Niño, indicating that the weather phenomenon could emerge again.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has, however, dismissed recent reports of an impending El-Niño, claiming that an occurrence of the phenomenon is not likely in the country. And if it does occur, chances are it will not be as severe as that of 1998.
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