A stable and peaceful Sudan is crucial for Africa

Magdi A Mofadal

The history of independent Sudan is marred by civil war and conflicts. The first phase of the North-South conflict started on August 18, 1955 — four months before the country’s independence and lasted 17 years.

The second phase, which spanned 1983-2005, was ended by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in January 2005. The conflict in Darfur started in 2003 when two rebel movements took arms against the Government in what they saw as neglect of Darfur by the central government.

Despite these conflicts, there is mounting momentum for lasting peace that is crucial not only for Sudan but for the whole continent. This can be illustrated in the following points:

A major milestone in the implementation of the CPA was the general election held last month. The inauguration of the President, which follows the inauguration of the President of the Government of Southern Sudan and the states Governors, will be held tomorrow.

The next milestone in the CPA implementation is the self-determination referendum for Southern Sudan to be held in January next year. Southern Sudan will decide in this referendum whether to secede from the greater Sudan.

The peace that Southern Sudan enjoyed since the signing of the Cessation and Hostilities Agreement on October 15, 2002, was not substantially threatened by 0possibility of recurrence of conflict.

The two parties to the CPA have been, and are still committed, to its full implementation in spite of difficulties here and there. They have repeatedly reiterated their determination not to go back to war.

Low-intensity engagement

Despite the negative reporting about the situation in Darfur, it can be said that relative peace has prevailed in Darfur for more than five years. In August last year, the former commander of the Joint UN-AU (UNAMID) force, General Martin Luther Agwai stated that, "As of today, I would not say there is a war going on in Darfur".

He added that" the conflict now developed into banditry and very low-intensity engagements between belligerents".

Former UNAMID Joint Special Representative, Mr Rodolphe Adada also echoed similar remarks before the UN Security Council.

The high voter turnout in Darfur in last month’s landmark General Election is a clear testimony to the improving security situation in the region. Moreover, peace enabled Darfur IDPs to voluntarily return to their villages. Since 2008 the returnees exceeded one million.

Peace in the continent’s largest country, will have wide implications all over Africa. It is the only country that borders nine states and a waterway (the Red Sea).

Trickle down

In spite of the war that was in the South and the conflict in Darfur, Sudan has the largest economy in Central and Eastern Africa. It is also one of the fastest growing economics in the continent with a GDP that grew by 11 per cent in 2008 and four per cent last year.

Also, Sudan is one of the richest states in Africa. It is endowed with huge agricultural potential and oil, gas, gold, different types of minerals, huge animal resources, etc. The benefits of peace will trickle down to neighbours who stand to get the lion’s share from the country’s prosperity. On the flipside, however, those countries will be the most affected by instability in Sudan.

40-million-plus market

For sustainable peace to prevail in Sudan, the world must simultaneously support the Doha Peace Talks on Darfur and to work for a free, fair, peaceful and credible referendum next year.

The international community and neighbours must work for the sole objective of peace in Sudan. Neighbours who suffered the brunt of Sudan’s conflicts are the biggest beneficiaries of peace. Peace will add a 40-million-plus market for the thriving East African Community, to which Sudan can accede.

Massive resources combined with peace will, undoubtedly, generate regional dividends in the form of trade, investments, employment opportunities, financial flows, power, road, and railway interconnectedness with the neighbouring countries.

The writer is a diplomat at Sudan Embassy in Nairobi.