Elections: Why we need to worry

In William Shakespeare’s play, Julius Caesar, a soothsayer shouts at Caesar to beware of the Ides of March. The Ides occurs near the midpoint, on the 13th day for most months, but on 15th March, May, July and October.

The soothsayer was prophetic. On that day in 44 BC, Caesar was killed by a group of conspirators. If he had heeded the warning, he probably would not have been murdered. Let me pretend to be a seer.

Fast forward: the date is August 9, 2017; the election results should be announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. The IEBC chairman decides otherwise and declares he will not announce the results for the presidential votes.

The reason he gives is that a large number of ballots are yet to be tallied. God forbid; in the northern parts of the country, several polling stations have been attacked and Al Shabaab militias have kidnapped the polling staff and taken away electoral staff plus the ballot boxes.

In parts of the Rift Valley, unexpected torrential rains have swept away a few roads and bridges, and vehicles ferrying ballot boxes cannot move. A power blackout in Nairobi causes confusion during the tallying of votes and pro-government and pro-opposition supporters disrupt the process so more than 2 million votes in Nairobi cannot be counted. There is confusion and panic everywhere.

Opposition leaders cry foul and accuse IEBC of planning to rig the elections in favour of the ruling party, Jubilee. Roads are blocked and motorists stoned as riots erupt. Businesses in the central business district are looted and scores of people get killed in the ensuing chaos.

The Government responds by sending in large contingents of General Service Unit officers armed with teargas and rubber bullets. The crowds overpower the police who resort to shooting, and large numbers of people are killed. In a panic, the people start packing their belongings. Those living near borders start crossing into neighbouring countries.

Surprisingly, more than 500,000 people cross into southern Somalia to seek refuge in an area controlled by Al Shabaab. A bigger group escapes to Uganda and Tanzania.

In America, the new President, Donald Trump, has just signed an executive order to cut back aid to African countries and also reduced America's contribution to the United Nations. The multi-lateral approach to solve international conflict does not exist anymore because other developed countries also follow suit.

So the post-election violence in Kenya does not get international attention. As Kenyans continue slaughtering each other, the rest of the world moves on. A new world order has begun where countries all over the world are looking inwards and no attention is paid to conflicts in the developed world.

For Kenya, unfortunately there will be no Kofi Annan.

The scenario described above might appear far-fetched and apocalyptic but it is very probable. We have seen such images most recently in The Gambia after the former president accepted, then disputed election results, leading to interventions by the regional economic bloc, Ecowas.

The 2017 General Election is less than seven months away. Fortunately, we, the Kenyan people, have chosen a democratic pathway that, if well managed, could lead to a more cohesive and prosperous country. However, the tone of sentiments as the campaign period sets in shows reason to be concerned.

We have witnessed leaders being heckled at campaign rallies; not even the President and his deputy have been spared, and polarisation is on the rise. What on earth is happening? The fragility of the union is evident.

From the ignominy that Kenya sank into after the disputed 2007 presidential elections, we know that the nation state is still made up of a loose federation of ethnic groups.

The nation state is defined as a form of political organisation in which a group of people who share the same history, traditions or language live in a particular area under one government.

The parameters used to define the nation state in the case of Kenya do not give solid ground to show sustainability of the nation state. Kenya is made up of 43 or more ethnic groups.

Most of the 47 counties have an ethnic group that is unique to them. Some of these counties even bear the name of the dominant ethnic group. For example, Nandi, Samburu, Turkana, Meru, Embu, and Elgeyo Marakwet. Most Kenyans do not identify themselves as Kenyans first. The norm is to define ourselves first using tribe, faith, then nationality.

Compare that with an average Tanzanian. In Tanzania, the founding fathers invested heavily in maintaining social and cultural cohesion. That is why elections in Tanzania are not synonymous with violence.

Our diversity, though an asset in itself, could also be disastrous in the event of ethnic violence due to a disputed election. Politicians could easily exploit this weakness and set us on a path of destruction. The 2007 scenario is living testimony.

With what I see and hear, 2017 might not be an exception. Do we really want to go in that direction?

Because we the leaders know that elections have always invited ethnic conflict, it would help a lot to sensitise the people at this time that Kenya must hold together whatever the outcome.