Ol Kalou results will reverberate into the future

DCP candidate Sammy Kamau Ngotho won the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Ol Kalou was just one by-election. However, it has heightened the battle of narratives ahead of the General Election next year. The victory by Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) candidate, Kamau Ngotho, will bolster former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s claim to title of “Mt Kenya Kingpin.”

At the same time, the manner of the victory – a landslide (84% vs 13% by early morning Friday) despite enormous investments by the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in support of its candidate – is a sign for President William Ruto ahead of next year. There is now no denying that UDA has lost much of Mt Kenya, the region that delivered the largest share of votes in 2022.

UDA and President Ruto have strong incentives to downplay the result. They will remind Kenyans of the other by-elections they (and affiliated parties) recently won. They will also argue that turnout was low, or that there is still time to recover ground in Mt Kenya. However, much of this will be clutching at straws.

The fact of the matter is that Ol Kalou was a shellacking for President Ruto and UDA. There is no way to hide from this fact. This raises an important question. How will President Ruto and his political advisors respond to Ol Kalou? One reaction might be to ignore the results, and proceed with business as usual, perhaps under the assumption that President still has time to recover ground in Mt Kenya before next August’s election. That would be a mistake.

Ol Kalou’s informational value extends well beyond the constituency. Because of the nature of the loss (again, despite massive outlays on “development projects” ostensibly to boost the UDA candidate’s chances), lots of people are now convinced that UDA and President Ruto are not invincible, and therefore not inevitable next year.

There is therefore likely to be a bandwagon effect throughout the country. Good political entrepreneurs will want to execute their own “Ol Kalou strategies.” And I bet Gachagua and his team will be delighted to support them.

A different reaction might be to take the loss on the chin and try discern why voters forcefully rejected the UDA candidate. If done well, this introspection will lead the President and his team to honestly acknowledge Kenyans’ pain points. Cost of living is high, and getting higher. Insecurity is on the rise, and being made worse by goonism that appears to be sanctioned by the government.

High levels of corruption and flaunting of wealth by corrupt public officials is eroding social trust. The quality of public services in education, health, agricultural extension services, among others, is far from where it should be. And overall, Kenyans collectively believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction – social trust is low, Kenyan officialdom seems to be in thrall to foreign and domestic criminals, and governance through theatre and public relations dominates all else.

For these reasons, most Kenyans are likely to identify with the overwhelming majority of voters in Ol Kalou who rejected the UDA candidate. To reiterate, Ol Kalou is just one by-election. Yet because of the dynamics above, future analysts may look to it as the first domino to fall that set in motion a wave election that for the first time in our history successfully limited an incumbent President to one term in office.

-The writer is a professor at Georgetown University