Virus: Leaders’ tough call to save lives or economies

Protesters against the state's extended stay-at-home order to help slow the spread of the coronavirus disease demonstrate at the Capitol building in Madison, Wisconsin on April 24. [Reuters]

In the late 1990s, Martin Mburu hosted a highly successful show on TV called Omo Pick a Box.

Selected participants were presented with the choice of either taking a given amount of money or picking a box whose contents were not known.

The fun was you could pick the box that at times would contain nothing and forfeiting the money you had been offered.

Mburu would keep increasing the money to entice you away from choosing the box. The climax was the opening of the box. 

Governments all over the world are in a similar situation, torn between the health of their citizens threatened by Covid-19 and keeping their economies going.

Our health is the box; not enough is known about Covid-19. Where did it come from? How is it mutating? How soon shall we get a vaccine or cure?  Does recovering from it give you immunity? Too few tests have left a lot of unknowns.

In this context, our economy is the money. 

From December 2019 to mid-April 2020, the choice was straightforward; most governments chose the health of their citizens with lockdowns, travel restrictions and, in places like Kenya, curfews.

The fear and shock over Covid-19 made the choice easy.

Now countries are questioning the wisdom of this choice. And they could be justified. 

First, China seems to have successfully stopped Covid-19 in its tracks and saved its economy. This means it will be ahead of the curve in post-Covid-19 recovery.

This strikes fear in Western countries already importing personal protective equipment (PPEs) from China.

They further fear that the newly found confidence in China after its subduing of Covid-19 will make it the dominant player in the post-Covid-19 global economic system. 

Massive aid

Would these countries reject Chinese massive aid akin to the Marshall Plan from the US to Europe after World War II? Some countries like the US already owe China huge amounts of money through Treasury bills and bonds. 

Politics is also forcing countries to revise their choices. A poorly performing economy in developed countries is the best route out of power. Voters will not forgive you because of Covid-19.

The fear of losing power could be partly driving political leaders to reconsider their wholehearted focus on Covid-19 at the expense of the economy.

Some leaders have openly stated that there could be more deaths from a bad economy than Covid-19, citing suicides, alcoholism and even hunger. 

It’s more than fear.

Despite lockdowns, the deaths have risen. Nations and their leaders are asking, 'Why lose both?' 

Would it have been better if we let the economy go on and just suffer the ill health only? Some even ask if herd immunity could have been better. Unfortunately, no one can predict precisely what could have happened if steps like lockdowns had not been taken.

We must remember that developed countries are more sensitive to lockdowns than their poorer counterparts. Surprisingly, they operate more like our informal sector - in real-time. This is why within months, they want an end to lockdowns. 

The efficiency of advanced economies makes the costs of an economic lockdown skyrocket. Remember, they operate 24 hours.

Our curfew has minimal effects; we are mostly at home after 5pm and wake up at 5am or later. 

Encouraged by China and some European countries, particularly Germany, economies are slowly opening or planning to reopen in phases despite the fear of a second wave of coronavirus infections. 

The job losses and possible social upheavals are proving too hard to fathom, so much so that countries are willing to experiment with reopening despite there being no cure or vaccine for Covid-19.

We are eagerly waiting for the Oxford University vaccine trials. 

In the US, demonstrators are demanding an end to lockdowns, with political overtones.

This is good for politicians; if lifting the lockdowns leads to more deaths, they can always say, “you asked for it”.

It was an open-ended question as to how long the lockdowns and other restrictions would last.

Prolonged shutdowns

Economic reality cannot allow for prolonged shutdowns. Our jobs and our lives depend on economic activities. 

We had predicted that Kenya is unlikely to go into total lockdown; the economic and political costs would be too high.

Watching events in the West and in China, it seems our leaders made a wise decision with a a partial lockdown.

The leaders are cognizant of existing economic realities. But we are yet to see the curve flatten and the hard realities thereof. We hope we shall not get there. 

It seems that after only about four months, most countries are choosing money (economy) over the box (Covid-19).

There is an ethical question every political leader should answer: how many people are likely to save the economy?

In the fullness of time, facts and data will demonstrate which was a better choice - money or the box.

The writer is an associate professor at the University of Nairobi.