‘Yes’ is still ahead, fresh survey finds

By Alex Ndegwa

With two months to the referendum vote, the latest opinion poll still puts the ‘Yes’ camp in the lead, but shows the Greens have lost some ground and fallen below the 60-per cent mark.

The survey by Synovate Research, formerly Steadman, indicates 57 per cent of registered voters would vote ‘Yes’ in the August 4 referendum, 20 would vote ‘No’, while 19 per cent were undecided.

And in a sign of imminent voter apathy, another four per cent – double the number of North Eastern’s 223,485 registered voters – said they would not cast their ballots.

The latest poll suggests support for the Proposed Constitution has dipped by seven points in slightly more than a month, while opposition has increased by two.

In late April Synovate Research indicated 64 per cent of Kenyans would vote ‘Yes’, 17 would vote ‘No’, while 19 per cent were undecided. A week ago a survey by another pollster, Infotrak Harris, showed 63 per cent of eligible voters intended to vote ‘Yes’ compared to only 21 per cent who would vote ‘No’.

Synovate Managing Director George Waititu addresses the Press at Laico Regency Hotel, Nairobi, Friday. [PHOTO: GOVEDI ASUTSA/STANDARD]

The survey, whose findings were released at Laico Regency Hotel, Nairobi, was conducted between May 22 and 28, with a sample of 6,017 registered voters from 71 districts.

Synovate Group Managing Director George Waititu had to fend off persistent questions over the veracity of the poll raised by ‘Red’ campaigners in attendance, including Dr Tom Namwamba, who heads the ‘No’ secretariat.

Waititu was pressed to explain factors that had caused the ‘Yes’ campaign slide, and whether the ‘No’ camp was gaining ground, but he was non-committal. Instead, he only conceded heightened political activity could partly explain the shift.

The ‘Yes’ camp has lately been dogged by claims of deceit, with accusations that some leaders in its ranks were campaigning for ‘Yes’ by day but preaching ‘No’ at night.

The disquiet is reportedly stoked by the cutthroat race to succeed President Kibaki in the 2012 General Election, for which the Proposed Constitution has become a key plank.

Some top PNU leaders are said to be uncomfortable with playing second fiddle to Raila, whom they believe is "running away" with the ‘Yes’ campaign to hog credit if the Proposed Constitution is approved to boost his 2012 presidential bid.

Yesterday’s poll findings also showed Raila, with 41 per cent of approval ratings, and leading the pack if presidential elections were held today. This is likely to rattle his rivals.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is a distant second, with 13 per cent while President Kibaki, who however is not eligible to run in 2012, is third with 12.

Higher Education Minister William Ruto, who is leading the ‘No’ camp, would garner nine per cent, Martha Karua, whose Narc-Kenya has declined to attend joint ‘Yes’ rallies with PNU, would get seven, and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta three.

The heckling of the Vice-President during the ‘Yes’ launch at Uhuru Park last month, that saw PNU ministers snub the subsequent rally in Embakasi and hold a separate rally in Central last weekend, appears to have slowed down the Greens.

The Synovate poll shows the apparent lack of enthusiasm by key PNU leaders could have caught up with their supporters.

An overwhelming majority of Raila’s supporters (74 per cent) indicated they approved the draft compared to 57 of Kibaki supporters.

Less than half of Kalonzo’s supporters (44 per cent) indicated they would vote ‘Yes’ with a higher majority (48) indicating they would either reject the draft or were undecided.

The draft enjoys much more support (65 per cent) among ODM supporters, compared to 55 of PNU supporters. Instructively, less than half of ODM-Kenya supporters (45 per cent) endorse the draft, with a third (30 per cent) rejecting it.

With official campaign period set to start as curtains come down on civic education, the poll suggest an overwhelming majority of voters (77 per cent) have decided how they would vote while 19 are undecided.

Of the decisive voters, 74 per cent said they would vote ‘Yes’ while nearly a third (26) said ‘No’.

The survey found out the more enlightened about the draft voters are the higher its chances of approval, stressing voter education.

Three quarters of those who were well acquainted with the draft indicated they would vote ‘Yes’.

But the survey indicates familiarity with the draft is still low, with only 10 per cent of voters indicating they know a lot, something (25), a little (51), and nothing (13).

Massive Support

Though North Eastern residents are the least informed of its contents at 21 per cent, the region ironically accounts for the largest support (88 per cent) for the Proposed Constitution.

Conversely, the draft has the least support in Rift Valley (39), and Eastern (41 per cent). The two regions form the bedrock for the ‘No’ camp.

The two regions lead in the number of ‘No’ voters, with more than a third of voters in Rift Valley (33), and nearly a third in Eastern (29), indicating they would vote ‘No’.