They were warned on General Elections

By Standard Reporter

National spy network’s warning to top security officials and Presidency that mishandling and interference with 2007 elections could burn Kenya was more categorical and correct in prediction than earlier thought.

Though National Security Intelligence Service chief Maj-Gen (rtd) Michael Gichangi told Justice Philip Waki’s commission his agency had forewarned relevant offices of violence whichever sides wins, it turns out behind the scene NSIS had given the relevant offices an earful already.

The bulk of its warnings are contained in a brief to National Security Advisory Council and two letters to disgraced former chairman of disbanded Electoral Commission Mr Samuel Kivuitu, all copied to top security officials and the President.

NSAC is the country’s highest decision-making organ on national security, which it deems a matter of life and death, and its members include the President, Internal security minister, Defence minister, military and police commanders, and the NSIS chief. Its minutes were recorded by Civil Service boss Mr Francis Muthaura in his capacity as secretary to the Cabinet. The NSAC was then composed of President Kibaki, Maj Gen Hussein Ali (Police Commissioner), Maj General Jeremiah Kianga (Chief of General Staff), Gichangi, Mr Njenga Karume (Defence minister) and Mr John Michuki (Internal Security minister)

Given the ranking of those in attendance in NSAC meetings, and their roles in holding and ensuring the safety of the country, the letters debunk the myth that they were either caught unawares or were oblivious of what a flawed election would cost the country.

They could also not have been unaware of the risks that a process short of credibility portended for Kenya — especially when intelligence chiefs warned of the ticking time bomb. NSAC had been warned of groundswell in the country, especially in regard to partisan civil service, hate propaganda flying all round and emergence of political zones curved out of tribal blocs. Then far much later followed erratic management of results from the field, shunting of the media, and finally hurried swearing in of President Kibaki as houses were burnt, the innocent slaughtered and hapless uprooted from their homes.

After a sitting of NSAC, Gichangi drove into NSIS headquarters in Ruaraka on December 6 and wrote a four-page brief to Kivuitu, on the proceedings of the meeting chaired by the President. He titled it "Critical Dates and Events — General Elections 2007".

In it Gichangi gave two accurate predictions: "The conduct of the law enforcement agencies, ECK officials and behaviour of candidates/supporters will determine peaceful electioneering, fair play and successful elections.

The involvement of government officials and use of public resources for campaign purposes could lead to accusations of rigging and provide grounds for violence and subsequent petitions."

He added: "Increased political activity and attendant lawlessness are likely to overwhelm the security organs. Issues such as land tenure, cattle rustling/theft, political zoning and incitement would provide fertile ground for ethnic confrontations/feuds."

Setting the stage for his letter that could have saved Kenya, Gichangi was vehemently clear the race was a high-stakes game and, "the candidates have shown willingness to go to any length to ensure victory."

As it were, the process was mishandled, all the landmines he advised against were trampled upon, and Kenya burned its fingers and is yet to heal today even as disagreements on how to try post-election suspects dominate news headlines.

Critical events

The security forces were not only outfoxed and stretched too thin by the scale of the violence, but in its ranks was the Administration Police whose members had been conscripted by President Kibaki’s Party of National Unity as poll agents, a travesty that saw many of the innocent officers killed as they went to report at the polling stations.

Sticking to and reporting on decisions of NSAC, he singled out phases, or timelines to watch out in the electioneering process arguing: "The candidates have shown the willingness to go at any length to ensure victory.

These factors make handling/outcome of the following dates/events critical.

He singled out:

*Campaign period (November 3 - December 24)

*Jamhuri Day speech, with emphasis on the tone of President’s speech.

*Polling Day itself, over which he cautioned, "acceptance of the results will be dependent on the organisation, conduct of the ECK and goodwill of the participants, particularly the candidates and their supporters.

*Counting and announcement of the results, over which he made three recommendations: Adequate security for ECK records and materials; Improvement of ECK Information Centre to ensure "speedy announcement of the results as they arrive; and finally a meeting between ECK and Kenya’s media managers and editors to "strike a deal on modalities of transmission and announcement of the results.

Though the latter was not followed, Gichangi’s worry was how to handle independent announcement of the results by the media from the field and KICC tallying centre, the President’s side instead chose to ignore the media and later ordered it to stop reporting the results, and far much later, when the country burned, enforced a ban on live coverage.

*Gichangi also singled out swearing in ceremony, advising that to avoid the confusion when President Kibaki took over in 2002, the Attorney General, Chief of General Staff and the Commissioner of Police, "formulate clear guidelines for logistical purposes."

Blood would still have flowed

He added, and which turned out prophetic: "Based on past experience (2002) the venue of swearing in/handover could be restricted to the public.’’

*In an accurate prediction of the turbulence between January and March 2008, he wrote down: "The conduct, results, public perception and position taken by the winners and losers will dictate the security of the country within the first three months after elections.

He concluded: "Utmost coordination, consultation and cooperation between the relevant Government organs; mainly ECK and NSAC would facilitate peaceful elections and activities thereafter."

However to the contrary, Kivuitu is on record saying powerful people had infiltrated and manipulated the ECK.

Before Waki, Gichangi had said whether it was going to be a Kibaki or Prime minister Raila win, blood would still have flowed. He also defended NSIS against claims of having taken sides, and had even planted some of his officers at Anniversary Towers building which was ECK’s base.

He also conceded advising ECK to ensure media houses were not allowed to relay results they received before verifying them. "My advice was aimed at ensuring that only official results were passed on to the public to avoid wrong results being declared," he said, adding that he also urged ECK to ensure speedy release of results to ensure that the media were not ahead of them.

Later, and in secrecy, he gave out details of individuals who reportedly participated in post-election violence.