ICC ruling on ‘Ocampo Six’ to redefine race to State House

By OSCAR OBONYOThe political fog that has overcast the road to State House clears next week when the ICC rules on A session during the confirmation of charges hearings of the ‘Ocampo Six’ last year. [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]the fate of the six post-election violence suspects in what promises to be a game-changer in next year’s presidential poll.Depending on the final pronouncements of the Ekaterina Trendafilova-led Pre-Trial Chamber II judges, next week’s developments are bound to trigger a radical shift in presidential campaigns or further propel the existing rival campaigns. And depending on how the ruling affects two of the suspects nursing presidential ambitions – Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto – political heat on presidential front-runner, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, could heighten or mellow. Equally, the ruling could thrust some politicians in the crowded Uhuru-Ruto corner to the battle frontline. Several scenariosCurrently, several scenarios can be contemplated and strategists in camps allied to the Premier, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru and Ruto. The questions uppermost in the minds of the aspirants’ think tanks include, what if the ICC does not proceed with Uhuru and Ruto cases to full trial? What if one of the two presidential aspirants is cleared? What if both have to face charges of crimes against humanity?Weighing in on the strength and benefits of the anticipated ruling, particularly on Uhuru and Ruto’s campaigns, and probable political beneficiaries, The Standard On Sunday evaluates each of the possible scenarios.Scenario One: ICC rules that charges against Uhuru and Ruto proceed to full trial.At a personal level, this would deal the two a most devastating blow, as it would almost certainly lock them out of the presidential race. With charges against humanity hanging over their heads, the duo’s candidature would contravene the principles of leadership and integrity as stipulated in Chapter Six of the Constitution. Macharia Munene, professor of History and International relations at United States International University, observes that such a ruling would derail the political careers of Uhuru and Ruto."If Uhuru and Ruto are effectively removed from the picture, this reduces competition especially for (Prime Minister) Raila and (Vice -President) Kalonzo. It also gives room for the rise of new players," he says. On the flipside, such a ruling could hand Uhuru and Ruto, who have publicly confessed their pact is geared at locking out Prime Minister Raila Odinga from ascending to presidency, a vital arsenal. "They have done this by appealing for sympathy votes by whipping up tribal emotions. This will be the trend towards the ballot as the two leaders strive to stay united or plan to turn over their crowds to another beneficiary," says Prof Amukowa Anangwe, a political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma.If Uhuru and Ruto succeed to convince the electorate that they were made the sacrificial lambs of the chaotic 2007 polls, adds Munene, "they could become political martyrs of sorts and their word as to how they should vote could be regarded as law by some."Scenario Two: ICC opts to uphold charges against one of the two aspirants.Because the Uhuru-Ruto camps are largely united and propelled by ICC factor, a ruling that separates the two leaders will fundamentally upset the siege mentality which the two politicians and their supporters are riding on. A scenario that gives hope to the political career of either of the two and condemns the other is bound to re-ignite cracks between supporters and communities of the two politicians. Pundits argue that either side will lack the enthusiasm to support the other, once their politician is condemned to a full a trial. Alternatively, other players such as Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Assistant Planning Minister Peter Kenneth, as in the case of central Kenya region, could inherit the bulk of Uhuru’s support. In Ruto’s case, a clear alternative is yet to emerge among his Kalenjin community. Scenario Three: ICC lets both Uhuru and Ruto off the hook.This is the dream verdict that the two politicians hope for and the ultimate victory for Uhuru and Ruto. It is one that is likely to give their campaigns fresh impetus. Kill hopes Nonetheless, it is one that will crowd the forces that support Uhuru and Ruto and one that will kill off hopes of those waiting in the wings to replace the two. And contrary to the now popular view that the rival ODM wants the ‘Ocampo Six’ out of the way to have a field day in the campaigns, The Standard On Sunday has established that the PM’s camp quietly hopes for a situation where Uhuru and Ruto are present and politically active during election campaigns.Experts argue that such a scenario would give Raila a better fighting chance as well as the realistic hope of reaping from a possible falling out in the congested PNU Alliance and now United Republican Party.Scenario Four: Some charges dropped but Uhuru-Ruto cases proceed to full trial Arguably, this is the best scenario for Uhuru and Ruto. It is one that will weaken their case and depending on the charges dropped it will sustain their course for presidency. More importantly for them, it will still bring them even closer and ensure the fire propelled by the siege-mentality flickers during the race. But Anangwe observes that they already carry so much baggage "which will obviously work against their personal campaigns". Scenario Five: Court recommends need for fresh investigations and tangible evidence.Coming after the High Court ruling has pushed the polls date to next year, this would be another plus for Ruto and Uhuru, as it would allow accord them ample time to play politics. It would also be welcome news because it partially clears the suspects of the charges.However, whether the charges are delayed not, Anangwe concedes the ICC suspects will be around to wreck political havoc.

ICC ruling on ‘Ocampo Six’ to redefine race to State House

Related Topics

Popular this week

Latest Stories

The Standard Insider

Digger Classified

GET OUR NEWSLETTER

CONNECT WITH US

FOR THE LATEST JOB ADVERTS

DIGGER JOBS

Digger Motors

Digger Real Estate

ICC ruling on ‘Ocampo Six’ to redefine race to State House

Related Topics

Trending Now

Popular this week

Latest Stories

The Standard Insider

Digger Classified

GET OUR NEWSLETTER

CONNECT WITH US

FOR THE LATEST JOB ADVERTS