Forum on China-Africa cooperation: What's there for Kenya and Africa?

President William Ruto and Chinese President Xi Jinping during bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. President Ruto is in China for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC). [PCS] China wants to engage Africa through partnerships, cooperation and shared prosperity. Through this approach, China hopes to outdo the West, which is often seen as more paternalistic. Interest in Africa is on the rise. Key powers like the USA, EU, China, Japan and recently Russia are engaging Africa more intensely than in the past. They all claim their goal is to uplift the African continent. It would be interesting to know what Africans think about this, particularly non-elites. More data on how Africa has been transformed by these initiatives is needed. Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) is the "think tank" arm of China, enabling the Far East Asian country to link up with progressive African nations focused on achieving socio-economic development. By analysing the forthcoming FOCAC meeting, it will be possible to assess this link and the role of various stakeholders. FOCAC makes "facing East" a viable option for Africa after the end of the Cold War. It's intriguing how China quickly replaced the old Soviet Union as the counterweight to the West, particularly in economic terms. The old Soviet Union's counterweight was more military. We still hear echoes of that in the Sahel. How much trade and economic cooperation with Africa survived the collapse of the old Soviet Union? China's economic influence goes beyond FOCAC. Another avenue is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which links several countries through land and marine routes, a reenactment of the old Silk Road. Do Kenyans know that the SGR and Lamu Port are part of BRI? FOCAC and BRI are seen as alternatives to the Western approach to transforming Africa. The West is perceived as imposing its will on African governments, though this is muted by an effective Western soft power strategy. We rarely talk of colonialism, and migrating to the West is seen as a badge of honour. China, on the other hand, prefers a policy based on respect and mutual interaction - a policy the West dislikes, feeling that China is soft on governance and human rights. African governments seem to favour this policy. The engine of FOCAC, the BRI, has spent over $250 billion in development aid to Africa in the last decade, lifting hundreds of thousands of Africans from poverty and underdevelopment. At the heart of BRI is China's belief that the road to socio-economic prosperity hinges on a nation's ability to expand its connectivity through the construction of infrastructure such as roads, railways, airports and ports. This contrasts with the West's focus on freedom and human rights. Building a "concrete" legacy has endeared China to many African countries. China's belief in connectivity is evidenced by its financial support for constructing the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), Lamu Port, several Nairobi Bypass roads, major road arteries in the northern frontier counties and the Nairobi Expressway, among other landmark infrastructure projects in Kenya. Now even Wanjiku can see China. What about cultural connectivity, as espoused by Confucius institutes? China has aligned its bilateral ties and agenda with Kenya's Vision 2030, which seeks to identify the country's key economic drivers. The twin initiatives, FOCAC and BRI, have enabled China to establish itself as Africa's number one foreign direct investment arranger and trading partner, generating upwards of $220 billion in commercial terms by 2023. China's investments in Africa were about $5 billion in 2023. Additionally, China's financial institutions, with government backing, advanced over $200 billion in loan facilities and concessions to African governments - despite fears of debt diplomacy. One major attraction of Chinese bilateral and multilateral loans is the fewer conditions or austerity measures compared to, say, the IMF. Perhaps that is why the Kenyan government is pursuing more funding for the construction of the third phase of the Standard Gauge Railway line connecting Mombasa-Nairobi-Naivasha-Malaba. China's other contrast with the West is the predominance of state-owned firms, which are rare in the West. Examples include the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and the China Communications Construction Company (CCCC). Did we try the same in the 1970s? The CRBC was the main builder of the SGR project, several major road projects, and the four Nairobi Bypass roads. The SGR has become the number one transport mode of choice for many travelers to and from the coastal city of Mombasa. Over 13 million passengers have already used the Madaraka Express services since its inception in 2017. The freight trains launched in January 2018 helped to decongest the port of Mombasa by providing a frequent, reliable, and efficient cargo evacuation mode of transport. Transit times improved drastically, saving importers significant foreign exchange. Additionally, less road traffic means reduced road wear and increased safety, though road transporters may feel they are losing out. CCCC constructed three brand-new berths at the port of Lamu under the LAPSSET Corridor Development Authority and the Kenya Ports Authority. Once the interconnecting roads linking the port and the Northern Frontier regions of the country are completed, the Lamu port will effectively serve Ethiopia and landlocked South Sudan. The modern Kipevu Oil Terminal, another CCCC project, increased storage capacity, improved terminal processing and enhanced the efficient transportation of petroleum products downstream. Other Chinese-built projects include the Nairobi Bypass roads and the Nairobi Expressway. These have led to efficient transportation, fuel savings and road safety, along with job creation, skills transfer and supply opportunities for local businesses. The Liwatoni Floating Bridge, constructed by the CRBC, has allowed residents of the Likoni area to access the mainland and Mombasa Island with ease, boosting commercial activities for small-scale traders who use the bridge. Who is building Dongo Kundu? Other projects in the pipeline include the planned construction of the Talanta Sports Stadium, which was unveiled by the President at the beginning of the year. The stadium is expected to be ready by 2027 to host the Africa Cup of Nations tournament in Nairobi. What can we expect from FOCAC? The Ruto administration may lobby the Chinese government for waivers and rescheduling of debt to bridge the pressing budget deficit caused by the withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024. China could also be requested to fund the completion of several stalled road projects in the country and to expand the game-changing LAPSSET corridor development that involves Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Kenya could also use the summit to reset Sino-Kenya diplomatic relations further, especially in light of the inroads made by large American corporations vying for big business opportunities in the country. Remember Bechtel and Elon Musk's Starlink? The change of regime in Kenya seems to have been exploited by the West to try and snatch Kenya from China's orbit. Kenya can also tap Chinese expertise and business acumen to develop a blueprint for industrialisation, skill-set transfer, technological know-how and innovation to create jobs for the country's burgeoning youth demographic. Where is the private sector in FOCAC? China is a good benchmark for Africa. The Far East Asian country has rapidly modernised and transformed itself into a super industrial nation in barely 25 years, becoming the world's largest economy per capita in 2024. The opening of China in 1978 by Deng Xiaoping should be emulated by African countries. Kenya could also use the FOCAC summit to seek training scholarships, higher education slots and TVET technical equipment to jumpstart vocational colleges throughout the country. These could become the seedbed of industrialisation. How about a Chinese airlift, something akin to the one that took Kenyans and Tanzanians to the USA for further studies before independence? Finally, China's geopolitical ascendancy should be viewed as a complement to global stability, particularly when this geopolitical road has a geo-economic parallel. Who wants a new Cold War? In the end, will China uplift and transform Africa where others have failed? Africa's shift to China's orbit is like marrying off a daughter. Will she be happier and prosper with her new husband, or will she wish she had stayed with her parents?

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