Which way Luo Nation if Raila exits local scene?

Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga. [Stafford Ondego, Standard]

Raila Odinga is probably the most consequential political figure in the last 30 years of the Kenyan nation.

Starting his political journey in the trenches agitating for political rights, and being detained for 9 years while at it to being the most recognisable name around which political courses have trudged is by no way a mean feat.

He has bestridden the Kenyan political landscape like the real Godfather. Against this background, his quest to go continental and lead the African Union will in every way leave a huge impact on Kenya’s political trajectory.

The clamour to replace him as party leader in ODM party is gaining steam. Two groups have publicly emerged, one fronted by former Kakamega governor Wycliffe Oparanya and the other by former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho. More formations are likely to emerge.

ODM was the latest special-purpose vehicle for which Raila pursued his political interests.

With his possible departure to the AU, its continued viability as a political vessel will be tested more so against the backdrop of the competing Western, Coastal and Nyanza interests. In fact, silent questions are being asked about the place of the Luo nation and whether ODM succession is an affair between Oparanya and Joho.

One key group that will be deeply affected politically by Raila’s ascendancy to the AU will be the Luo Nation. At the moment it is accepted that within Luo Nation there is no person with the gravitas and persona to agitate for the community to lead the party or stake a serious stab for President.

The Luo Nation is however a potent political force that brings to national discourse the numbers, intellectual rigour, pomp, colour, songs and jamboree that other political actors salivate for.

It is naturally expected that the Luo Nation take a pose and ask some political questions of all actors before re-engaging nationally; what is the irreducible minimum demand to any person desiring the votes and colour of the nation? 

The only logical answer to this question is in the absence of its most illustrious son in the national political arena, the least asked for the Luo would be the running mate position.

For good measure, the Luo Nation ranks second only to the Mount Kenya communities in terms of registered voters and a deputy demand would not be asking for too much of any campaign or formation. Politics is about interests and interests in the Kenyan political scene are organised around tribes or nationalities.

Without staking a claim to a national scene for a political slot, the Luo Nation will undoubtedly be diluted as a player in the national arena and be relegated to own games at the county level.

Strategically, the Luo Nation needs to develop its own matrix of choosing a partner. Reward for standing with the community cannot be the only consideration. In any event, all those who stood with the Luo Nation over the years were also poised to get seats if Baba were to win elections; it was not for nothing. They made their bargain and the Luo nation is equally well in order to make its bargain.

In politics, numbers matter and numbers bring votes and we need votes to elevate us to the national arena. It is my considered opinion that one other consideration to be taken into account is the ability of a proposed partner to take away votes from the Ruto vote basket of 2022. Those primary votes were from Mt Kenya and the Kalenjin Nation. It is safe to assume the Kalenjin Nation will stand by their man.

Mt Kenya communities are however not locked in Kenya Kwanza. They can potentially be moved. Can our proposed partner take that constituency away from Ruto? Remember just about 60 per cent of Ruto's votes came from Mt Kenya and any candidate with the ability to take away those votes from him leaves a dent in his political stock that no other singular group can fill. He becomes vulnerable and easy to defeat in an electoral contest.

The conversation about partnerships and our irreducible minimum must be held on our dinner table, public barazas, professional caucuses, weddings, funerals, bus stops, shambas, beaches and classrooms. We must introspect and talk to ourselves first before we commit to any group politically. And we must not be ashamed to make demands as Luos. Politics is about interests and it is time the Luo nation identify those interests and put them on the table the way other communities do.

-The writer is an advocate