Who has the numbers? Census politics may trigger realignments ahead of 2022

All eyes will be on the results of the upcoming census that will inform major political realignments, billions of shillings to the counties and the boundary delimitation ahead of the 2022 succession politics.

This will also be the first census to be conducted under the new Constitution and county governments would be hoping that the population rises so as to increase their share of the revenue allocated to them.

According to the Commission on Revenue Allocation (CRA) formula, population is the biggest factor in determining the allocation that goes into the devolved units. Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Wafula Chebukati has also indicated that they will are awaiting the results of census that will likely be out by early next year.

Chebukati said the re-alignment and drawing of the boundaries after the population census would be done after census.

SEE ALSO: Kenya’s biggest ethnic communities listed

“The commission cannot increase the number of constituencies. We only re-align the boundaries of the constituencies and wards,” he said. Yesterday, Ukur Yatani, the acting National Treasury Cabinet Secretary said the preliminary results will be out in 90 days and and the final in six months.

This means by December, the country, which always votes along ethnic lines will know which community has what numbers and begin the political haggling for the national and county seats based on the arithmetic.

The results will immediately inform what might form the basis of political alliances ahead of the 2012 General Election.

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Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria said immediately after the results, there will be a major reawakening of political alliances. “You will expect that people will now be looking at the real numbers, which they will use for courting political alliances,” Kuria said.

In 2013 and 2017, President Uhuru Kenyatta brought together the most populous communities to win the election.

SEE ALSO: 2019 census results: Tyranny of big tribes

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CensusNational censusElections 2022