Uhuru's headache over referendum and Big Four plans

President Uhuru Kenyatta with Deputy President William Ruto at the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on Saturday. [DPPS]

President Uhuru Kenyatta will face a dilemma should the country decide to hold a referendum. According to analysts the resulting campaigns could create an electioneering climate likely to interfere with the president's development agenda.

The president has fought hard to discourage early campaigns ahead of 2022 elections as he seeks to secure his legacy in his final term in office.

He fears such campaigns could divide the country and distract delivery of the Big Four agenda projects. Uhuru has publicly spoken out against premature campaigns for 2022 elections that continue to threaten his efforts to secure a lasting legacy.

However, a referendum appears inevitable as more and more leaders join calls to change the constitution.

Political analysts argue a referendum is costly and time consuming with chances of being politically acrimonious. This could lead to the same consequences Uhuru is apprehensive about with regard to early campaigns by those keen to succeed him.

It will be a delicate balancing for Uhuru to juggle his development agenda in the midst of heated campaigns he me may not completely avoid.

Uhuru finds himself in a predicament as leaders appear to concur on the need for a referendum that will plunge the country into a long period of campaigns.

Just last week, Deputy President William Ruto appeared to be throwing his weight behind constitutional change when he gave his suggestions on what should be introduced in the supreme law of the land to ensure inclusivity.

Ruto criticised the idea of creating the position an executive prime minister. His suggestions included creation of the position of the leader of official opposition, which should be taken up by the leader of the party or coalition of parties that comes second in an election. Their running mates should automatically become members of Parliament.

"I further suggest that with the leader of party or coalition of parties that comes second taking leadership of the Opposition in Parliament, the DP should be the leader of government business in Parliament. This should be replicated in the counties where deputy governor become leaders of government business in the county assembly,” said Ruto who spoke in London on Friday.

Just like leaders around President Kenyatta, including former Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe, NASA leaders, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, have been pushing for a referendum.

In 2010, President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila, led the 'YES' campaigns while Ruto, an ODM MP, led the 'NO' team, that later lost.

National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale describes calls for a referendum a distraction from the key agenda of the Jubilee administration.

“Our business is to implement our manifesto, join the President in executing the Big Four Agenda, unite the country and end divisive politics. Whenever you talk of a referendum, that’s the distraction from the key agenda,” said Duale 

He, however, says Jubilee will not gag anyone from a demanding a referendum but asked them to go to Kenyans and collect signatures.  

“As jubilee, the only brief we have from the President is to end 2022 politics. We are telling those talking about the changes that if you want a referendum, present the issues and question to Kenyans and collect signatures. Then come back to us. Parliament shall allocate resources while IEBC will do its work,” Duale said.

National Assembly Minatory whip Junet Mohamed, however, says with major players almost building consensus on need for constitutional changes, the exercise won’t be acrimonious as to distract the President's efforts to secure a legacy.

“The referendum should not be political or divisive. Even the DP, who was initially thought to be against the changes, has given his views on what we need to discuss at the referendum. If we go that way, we won’t have a divisive exercise that will plunge the country into a long campaign period,” Junet said.

Leaders agree

Junet, who is also the Suna East MP, said if leaders agree on the issues, by the first half of next year, the referendum would have been concluded.

University of Nairobi don and political analyst Herman Manyora argues the president can’t avoid politics.

"When the president says he doesn’t want politics, he doesn’t mean it but rather a warning to his DP to go slow on campaigns," says Manyora.

He added: "The referendum will even be more desirable to the President. What could be more political than a referendum? Whereas an election is about choosing leaders who will serve for five years, a referendum is all about altering the structure of governance that may stay for 100 years.”

Lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi warns that Uhuru has to make choices between shelving his development agenda and a referendum.

“The referendum will take at least 12 months. A referendum is bigger than a presidential election as it needs time, resources and strategy,” he said.