Sonko’s reckless moves show we’re inching to the edge

One of the features of fragile states, like ours, is that decisions are taken arbitrarily, recklessly, and for vested or political reasons rather than for the public good. The Jubilee regime has provided the template for how to remain a fragile state, keeping us tottering on the brink waiting to see if we will dial back or step over into the cliff to become a failed, collapsed, and imploded or conflict state.

Mike Sonko’s reckless and callous decision to suspend matatus in the CBD, without providing sufficient alternatives, is classic. The consequent mess was historical as it was predictable. So much so that I would not be surprised if there was a personal financial incentive—as is the habit of our leaders--behind the ill-fated decision. Or perhaps it was an exercise in chest-thumping to show his power and the meekness of Kenyans.

Then there is the scandal of Kenya Power delaying to increase costs, as it should have, so as to help the UhuRuto regime appear to have stabilised the economy in an election year. In any other country, we would have had resignations of all officials the moment the scandal was revealed including and especially the Cabinet Secretary responsible. Indeed so harmful was the decision and the message of corruption that Kenya Power, a state monopoly with some private sector investments, made losses! Monopolies for services that are essential and necessary and are used every day simply do not make losses without theft and pilferage.

But, alas, this is Kenya, a fragile and banana republic, so the opposite occurs and the CS becomes more powerful even though we are then saddled with high electricity bills that we could have spread over the months. Fragile states also attract graft and we are now seeing the impacts of corruption of the last years, fueled by a debt spree that has been exorbitant and the source of a lot of the looting. The message is that anything goes as long as the loot is share upwards. We borrowed $2.5 billion on the market, but we can’t locate at least $1 billion as the Treasury redacted the details in its public disclosures. And the rest went to recurrent expenditure which means it did not bring benefits as loans are supposed to.

Then we shifted from an idea to expand the old original railway from Mombasa to Kisumu for Sh80 billion to a totally new one from Mombasa to Nairobi for Sh360 billion. Too expensive and surely a way to loot, but we are now saddled with a debt that only some in power benefited from. And so they increase the cost of living by raising fuel prices spreading the pain, but not the gain.

To make things worse, they also force importers to use the SGR railway, weakening and perhaps destroying the entire Coastal economy simply to repay the loans that benefited them way more than anyone else. If the SGR made economic sense, there would be no need to force businesses to use it. And in the meantime, thousands of people reliant on the port directly and indirectly are made poorer as they lose their livelihoods simply so that some in the regime can eat. And no alternatives are offered, creating another group of frustrated Kenyans boiling with anger.

We are also seeing the impact of this corruption reflected in the Nairobi Stock Exchange as company after company struggles and their values plummet to the nominal share prices or below. This necessarily means there will be reductions in the workforce, adding to the group of frustrated Kenyans.

Weaponised

The response to all this mess from the regime is ad hoc, rhetorical and politically weaponised. They have declared a war on corruption, and appointed former spies—those accustomed to intrigues, secrecy and rumors--to lead this supposed war on corruption.  

It won’t work: Because impunity, political weaponisation and opaqueness at the top is the DNA of this regime. Appointing a QC to prosecute DCJ Mwilu is more about creating a space for a favored candidate to become Chief Justice by 2021, than it is about anti-corruption.  

Until we know the details of the Eurobond, SGR and NYS 2, we are chasing shadows. These scandals mean that any efforts to end corruption can only go so far, as many of the targets know where the skeletons are buried. This is why the much touted demolitions of buildings on riparian lands and from land grabbing faded away as predicted. And it is why some will continue showing off huge donations at churches that do not seem to have connection with known and transparent income generation. By accepting these grey donations, churches are complicit in the mess that is Kenya, their stated religious values notwithstanding.

If there was anything that Mr Sonko’s reckless decision showed us is that we are closer to the edge than many of us think. The trip from fragile to failed state is a short one and we inch closer every day, perhaps just waiting for the right trigger. 

- The writer is former KNCHR chairman. [email protected]