Jubilee’s reaction to annulment of election makes no sense

Over the last month I have tried, and failed, to make sense of jubilee Party’s reaction to the annulment of the presidential election. Here is why: First, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto came out guns blazing after Chief Justice David Maraga.

This was a squandered opportunity for the duo to burnish their credentials as custodians for the rule of law and democracy. If indeed they won the election, they should have accepted the re-run and sought to ensure that it happens within the 60-day constitutional limit, within which time they would still be in power like nothing happened. But by training their ire at the Supreme Court and Justice Maraga, they instead created a perception that they were opposed to both transparent elections and judicial independence.

This is unfortunate, and says volumes about the quality of political advice that the president and his deputy get served. There is a sense that no one at State House is thinking beyond the next five years. Second, the ongoing process in Parliament to tame the judiciary and rewrite statutes governing our electoral process makes no strategic sense.

There is no other way to view this than as a bad faith effort by a ruling party drunk with power to further entrench its dominance. It is also singularly dangerous for our democracy. If the presidential election is in the bag as most impartial observers (including yours truly) would admit, why all the panic? Why change the rules mid-stream? What will this achieve beyond making Jubilee legislators look like 21st century reincarnations of Kariuki Chotara?

If Jubilee gets in the habit of jamming through such controversial legislation through parliament in an effort to signal loyalty to Messrs. Kenyatta and Ruto, we will soon find ourselves in an autocracy. Self-restraint is an important virtue, especially when one has as much power as the Jubilee Party currently has.

Third, it makes no sense for either the Ruto or Kenyatta wings of Jubilee to push for the sweeping institutional changes that the Jubilee Party is fixated on. It is common knowledge that there is a looming intra-Jubilee battle over the Kenyatta succession. If the Ruto wing is to win this battle, he will need all the institutional powers he can get. Jubilee Party was formed as a commitment device to cement the 2013 pact between Kenyatta and Ruto.

But Jubilee Party will only be as strong as Parliament and the Judiciary. Without these institutions, the party will be a mere collection of elites pulling in different directions. Once parliament is completely subordinated to State House, what stops Kenyatta from changing the electoral laws to weaken parties vis-à-vis sitting MPs? And how will Ruto fight this if the Judiciary is also an executive lap dog?

And if Ruto manages to succeed Kenyatta - which he most likely will even without the Central Kenya vote – Kenyatta and his core elite supporters will need strong institutions to balance the new president. Which is why destroying parliamentary and judicial autonomy is a foolhardy move.

Without strong institutions, what will stop a President Ruto from engaging in extra-constitutional means of rebalancing the distribution of power and wealth in the country? Remember that land and water scarcity in the country are only getting worse. And the ghosts of 2008 continue to haunt us, from Kisumu to Kiambaa to Kariobangi. It makes absolutely no sense for Kenyatta to create an imperial presidency right before he retires. Term-limited presidents have strong incentives to tie the hands of their successors.

It is time for adults in Jubilee Party to stand up for what is in the best interest of Kenyatta and Ruto, and by extension our great Jamuhuri. Otherwise the self-indulgent among them will cut off their noses to spite their faces, all in the name of sticking it to one Hon. Raila Odinga.

The writer is an Assistant Professor at Georgetown University. Twitter: @kopalo