Ken Lusaka: From the word go, it was clear NASA was built on shifting sands

The National Super Alliance (NASA) is one of the greatest political contradictions of our time. It is the coalition that started by going round the country telling all and sundry that Raila Amolo Odinga was a spent force incapable of defeating President Uhuru Kenyatta at the ballot.

They admonished him as a wounded soldier with one last bullet, a perennial election loser who would end up bemoaning a fourth stolen election yet again. They asked him to shelve his bid and retire from politics or support a more viable candidate.

In the end, when the Kenyan public had already consumed this mantra, they reluctantly presented him as their presidential candidate but with one condition; 'One Term Only – Nothing More.'. With this kind of friends, Raila Odinga did not need enemies.

Alternative jobs

As if this wasn't sufficient damage, immediately upon presenting Mr Odinga as their presidential candidate, two key NASA co-principals went out in a do-or-die campaign for alternative jobs despite the ones promised by a NASA presidency. This was hardly an expression of faith in their course.

It all appeared like they knew well in advance that an Odinga presidency wasn't feasible.

A NASA presidency had promised NASA co-principal Moses Wetang'ula the plum position of Deputy Premier Cabinet Secretary responsible for Economic Affairs Sector Coordination in charge of Infrastructure and Energy.

On the other hand, Isaac Ruto had been promised yet another lucrative position in a NASA Administration; Deputy Premier Cabinet Secretary responsible for Governance and Social Sector Coordination in charge of Devolution and Health.

Despite the promises, Mr Wetang'ula went back to Bungoma to vie for the position of senator while Ruto headed back home to Bomet County to vie for the position of governor.

Lacking in belief

These actions can only be construed as lacking faith Raila would indeed form the next government and appoint them to the said positions.

Even Raila Odinga's foremost allies refused to let go of more assured safe seats in place of promises in a Raila presidency that was never to be.

For these seasoned politicians' clear signs appeared to be written on the wall very early. They did not require rocket science to work out that Jubilee had made significant inroads into hitherto Opposition strongholds like western Kenya.

Being a NASA stronghold this was an early sign to them that all was not well for the Opposition nationally.

These seismic political shifts did not just happen. Political shifts are a process that occur over time and are detectable. The NASA principals were right when their early warning signs predicted a Raila loss to Uhuru Kenyatta.

Recall this; in July, Wetang'ula asked his co-principal Raila to step down for him saying there were very slim chances of him (Mr Odinga) winning in the elections while noting that Raila had vied three times and failed and should therefore support him or Kalonzo Musyoka, the Wiper Party leader.

Rumour has it that in April, ANC Leader Musalia Mudavadi, who was the inspiration behind NASA, presented a report to the NASA Coordinating Committee indicating Raila was unlikely to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta. That the best ticket for the coalition was a Mudavadi -Kalonzo pair.

This then begs the question; why did the NASA Pentagon grudgingly stand behind Railadespite their publicly stated misgivings?

Raila Odinga succession?

My hypothesis is that for the so-called NASA Pentagon, the 2017 election was about positioning for the Raila Odinga Succession. It couldn't have been about 2017.

This is why ambitions were temporarily shelved, agreements were strictly for a one-term presidency and the principals all had their plan B's in their back pocket.

The electoral process has not been concluded, with the supreme Court hearing still pending, yet Mudavadi and Wetang'ula have declared their candidature for 2022 on a NASA ticket. Unbelievable?

In essence, they are fighting to elbow out Kalonzo Musyoka who has all along been seen as Raila's heir-apparent.

Did they expect Kenyans to vote for a candidate they had no faith in?

Even as we await the the Supreme Court ruling, NASA is already indicating that the outcome is immaterial unless the court grants them their prayers.

In conclusion therefore; NASA did not believe in a Raila presidency. They cannibalised their own candidate. Raila Odinga lost because his own Pentagon had no faith in him and they ran a shambolic campaign marred by internal competition.

Mr Lusaka is the former Bungoma Governor. He vied on a Jubilee ticket and lost to a NASA candidate