Ghosts of 2007 chaos abound, but police downplay alarm bell

Demonstrators light a bonfire in Kisumu on April 26 to protest the declaration of Ken Obura as the nominee for Kisumu Central parliamentary seat. [Photo: Collins Oduor, Standard]

With just two months to the General Election, the Interior Ministry says it is prepared for any eventuality that might arise from the election outcome. The August 8 presidential poll is proving as hotly contested as the 2007 one that sparked off violence across the country.

To do this, Interior Cabinet Secretary Joseph Nkaissery says the ministry has bolstered the number of security personnel, improved their mobility and emergency response units and that the uniformed forces are better equipped.

Nkaissery says the team under him has got all bases covered. Government data shows that more than 10,000 police recruits had joined the force by April this year. At least 9,300 police reservists are currently active, with an additional 36,000 police officers being trained and deployed. According to the Interior ministry, these new numbers have reduced the police to civilian ration from 1:800 to 1:380.

After the disputed 2007 polls, the police force was widely criticised for being ill equipped in responding to distress calls from around the country.

Now Nkaissery says at least 5,745 vehicles have been acquired for the National Police Service and another 1,516 for the Administration Police. The new fleet also includes three new helicopters and 30 Armoured Personnel Carriers, with an additional 204 new police stations constructed and in operation.

But analysts say the massive improvements within the security forces will have little impact whether the polls will be peaceful or not since most of the underlying issues from the chaotic polls from 10 years ago have not been resolved.

“Though an election alliance has brought together the two largest ethnic groups in the region, the Kikuyu and Kalenjin, and helped avert large-scale violence during the 2013 polls, the task of reconciliation is far from complete,” says a report released last week by rights organisation, International Crisis Group (ICG).

“The government has failed to heal rifts created by multiple prior rounds of political bloodshed and violent land disputes.”

The rights group says the political deal-making between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto has yielded a welcome, albeit superficial, calm.

“A transactional electoral pact is a fragile base upon which to build a lasting peace. Kalenjin politicians repeatedly warn that Kikuyu elites plan to stop Ruto from ascending to power by backing a Kikuyu candidate in 2022. Failure by the Kikuyu side of the Jubilee coalition to endorse Ruto in 2022 almost inevitably would trigger major instability in the Rift Valley,” the report says.

United States International University Prof Macharia Munene argues the ghosts of 2007 are unlikely to haunt Kenyans.

“The greatest responsibility on whether we will have a peaceful poll or not will be borne by two institutions, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as well as the individual political parties,” says Munene.

Stoking of emotions

In 2007, the arguably spontaneous violence that led to the death of more than 1,000 people was not entirely as a result of the unpreparedness of the security agencies, but more from the stoking of emotions by politicians in their political bases.

“In fact, there were reports that the intelligence services knew beforehand the underlying sentiments in some of the hotspots,” says Munene.

The Independent Review Committee, also known as the Kriegler Commission, appointed by President Mwai Kibaki under the Commissions of Inquiry Act to look at the factors that led to the 2007/08 violence, identified key issues.

The commission noted that there was vote-buying and selling, unapologetic use of public resources for campaigns, participation of public servants in campaign activities of certain camps, ballot-stuffing and organising of marauding gangs and bully-boys to “zone” regions and electoral areas and intimidate opponents.

It also noted that elections were preceded by hate speech and ethnic sentiments online, as well as the use of sexist tactics and violence to keep women out of the race and eventually turf wars within the IEBC.

“Structural weaknesses in the relationship between the commissioners and the secretariat in terms of the delineation of roles, bureaucratic procedures; and an unwieldy committee structure in some ways hampered smooth preparations for the elections and interfered with staff selection, recruitment, training and deployment,” the Kriegler report says.

In April year, the commissioners and the secretariat were at logger heads over a proposal to transfer some key employees. At the centre of the dispute were the proposed staff changes and movements that IEBC Chief Executive Officer Ezra Chiloba said were aimed at ensuring efficiency and effectiveness in their operations.

The changes were at some point shelved after it was opposed by some commissioners. In 2007, the electoral commission found itself in a similar mess, with sections of the commission taking sides with the political players, leading to the polarisation of the institution charged with giving Kenyans a credible poll.

Apart from the divisions within the election body, feelings of déjà vu continue to stalk the other aspects of this year’s election. The Kriegler report could trace some aspects of the violence to a botched nomination process among political parties.