Will independents stop Ruto 2022 run?

In Kalenjin folklore, there is a saying; putonu kween. This loosely translates to “it is fetching firewood”. The symbolic meaning of fetching firewood is an impending feast. At times, it is to warn someone of an imminent, but unpleasant, act in the not so distant future.

The Jubilee Party primaries have thrown up a lot of possibilities; least of all what the future portends for Deputy President William Ruto. Mr Ruto is suave, articulate, meticulous and boasts charisma like no other leader. Yet these are the qualities that define him most, negatively.

Last week, word went round that President Uhuru Kenyatta would be seeking the endorsement of the association of independent candidates. Those quick to read between the lines waited with bated breath wondering what message Mr Kenyatta would be sending his deputy since this seemingly disgruntled bunch had attributed their misfortunes to Mr Ruto’s 2022 arithmetic.

Conspiracy has it that the deputy president shoved aside all those who were not aligned to his pet project; 2022. How true that is will be seen in the realignment that will follow the August elections. Nobody for sure knows how things changed. But had it happened, Uhuru would have walked right into a well-laid trap and the independents would have had the last laugh. By the way, were the Jubilee Party primaries free and fair? We couldn’t tell for sure, but some of the outcomes give it a semblance of that. Surely, isn’t heaping all the blame for went wrong on one man unfair?

So it would have been an unmitigated disaster had Mr Kenyatta chosen to get endorsed by those perceived as the enemies of his bosom buddy.

Did anyone hear the line that the chaos that ensued on the first day of Jubilee primaries were actually contrived and that Mr Ruto had been wheeled in, not to bring back order, but to stew himself?

This pattern of thinking lends credence to word on the street that those who stampeded out of Jubilee have an axe to grind with Ruto, a man many credit with Jubilee’s 2013 win. Whichever way you look at it, there is so much house-keeping to be done in the Jubilee Party.

The rise of the independents can be understood in many ways. Perhaps our democracy has matured and those feeling suffocated by the shenanigans in party politics have found a way out. That is neither here nor there.

But where there is smoke, there is fire. That the Kenya Association of Independent Candidates draws most of its membership from the ruling Jubilee Coalition strongholds reveals a lot than it conceals. Despite its independence, wrote Tetu MP Ndung’u Gethenji, KAIC is unequivocal in its support for President Kenyatta. And therein lies the rub. Obviously, KAIC is not a coincidence. And Ruto can only ignore it at his own peril. It offers vital lessons in political machination. Isn’t Kiambu Governor William Kabogo the one who fired the first warning shot about 2022 not being a foregone conclusion? The blowhard Kabogo is in the steering wheel of KAIC.

On social media, it is clear that the 2007/08 wounds have not healed yet. There are subtle references of the mass slaughter in the aftermath of the disputed presidential elections with fingers pointing at one man. What’s more, diehard Jubilee pundits who have hitherto exalted the infamous tyranny of numbers have grown less enthusiastic. To signal the tactical shift, in their writing now are references to an impending class war; between the haves and have-nots.

The drums of the obvious fault lines within Jubilee have been beating silently. The fierce suspicion and fear have been mutual. Nobody trusts the other; that the ones working hard to make Kenya prosper is on one side, while the other side is busy ‘eating’ whatever has been generated.

It has never been a case of familiarity breeding contempt. No, it is on what premise the foundation of Jubilee coalition was formed. Recall Jesus Christ’s warning in the New Testament about building a house on sand?

No doubt, the tectonic plates of our politics keep shifting. They never stop. They shifted again after the nominations.

It is no secret that the independents will be an unnecessary obstruction and a barrier to Mr Ruto’s big dreams. The ground is being laid... Watch this space.

Mr Kipkemboi is the OpEd Editor at The Standard [email protected]