Why 2017 is hard tackle for Jubilee

Ever since elections started, an incumbent has never lost in Kenya. Even former President Moi, who had to fight off one of the toughest political challenges in 1992, regained his seat. President Moi outwitted a vibrant and internationally supported Opposition that included former President Mwai Kibaki, the doyen of Opposition politics Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenneth Matiba, among many others.PHOTO: COURTESY

“In your estimation,” a friend asked me some time back in 2014, “do you think Jubilee will win re-election?” It was an easy question. Ever since I was elected in 2013, I haven’t found it probable that the Jubilee coalition that sponsored my election in Isiolo will lose in 2017. Jubilee, it seems, had taken over the leadership mantle at the right time; a new progressive Constitution being the main highlight.

But then with the elections coming close, I am getting disabused of that thought. No doubt, Jubilee enjoys incumbency and with it comes many advantages: the incumbent often has more name recognition because of their previous work in the office they occupy; incumbents have easier access to campaign finance and Government resources that can be indirectly used to boost a campaign. In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections.

Ever since elections started, an incumbent has never lost in Kenya. Even former President Moi, who had to fight off one of the toughest political challenges in 1992, regained his seat. President Moi outwitted a vibrant and internationally supported Opposition that included former President Mwai Kibaki, the doyen of Opposition politics Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenneth Matiba, among many others.

Remember the nyama choma-eating American ambassador Smith Hempstone who fearlessly campaigned for pluralism and openly challenged President Moi’s legitimacy? Even under such pressure, Mr Moi won the elections albeit with a smaller margin and with less votes than the combined Opposition votes.

The Kibaki presidency suffered a similar stress, only this time, the 2007 elections became contentious and plunged the country into chaos and to date, the ghosts of the post-election violence still hover over our heads. Despite the deaths of 1,300 people, President Kibaki was still declared President.

In more established democracies, such a leader would have stepped down and taken moral responsibility for the death and destruction people suffered in the process of his re-election. But alas, in Kenya such moral responsibility is unknown and a politician would do anything within his means to regain his seat.But then, the incumbency this time around may not be very beneficial for the Jubilee party.

And not just because of nothing. Here are the statistics; check around, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party has performed dismally in recent by-elections. The ruling coalition failed to clinch even one seat except in the bitterly contested Kericho senatorial position. Even then, the main challenger, Kanu catalogued obvious transgressions that allegedly gave the ruling party undue advantage.

For a ruling political party to lose four consecutive by-elections is an electoral disaster. And it doesn’t stop there.

The prognosis in the Rift Valley which has hitherto been considered a Jubilee stronghold is turning out quite unexpected. Out of the 13 counties of the former Rift Valley Province, so far, half have shown their back to Jubilee. In Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Trans Nzoia, Bomet, and Baringo, the numbers for Jubilee seem to be struggling.

In West Pokot and Baringo, Gideon Moi’s Kanu has an upper hand. In Kajiado and Turkana, Raila Odinga’s CORD still remains the party to beat. Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) has a safe and secure hold on Bomet, while Trans Nzoia with a majority Luhya population might go with either Musalia Mudavadi or Moses Wetang'ula. With potential fallout during the party primaries, more challenges for Jubilee

Party are expected. That will only complicate the election further. To win the presidency, a candidate has to win in at least 24 of the 47 counties.

In Nandi County, veteran politician Henry Kosgey wants to run for the gubernatorial seat on possibly Kanu or CCM. Nobody knows but the people say “they miss him.”

Elsewhere in the country, Jubilee is not really getting the warm reception its sponsors thought it would. In the North and other Muslim-dominated counties, a large proportion of the population is bitter about the disappearances of their youths through extra-judicial killings believed to be perpetrated by the security agencies.

The murmurs of the man on the street suggest that the people are not happy. The youth also are denied national identification documents. These problems, coupled with high unemployment could explain the high level of resentment from the locals.

The only region where Jubilee appears to enjoy full support is Mount Kenya region and a section of the South Rift. And even then, the dilemma facing the candidates is the nomination aftermath.

To win, Jubilee will have to think and act differently. Most Kenyans in the rural areas know very little about the Standard Gauge Railway or other major infrastructural projects. Even where major roads have been completed, the credit goes to President Kibaki and not so much to the Jubilee government.

It is such that the manner of publicising some of Jubilee achievements such as the Last Mile connectivity for electricity, the laptop project or the large scale irrigation scheme like the Kulalu- Galana project in Tana River have done little or nothing to persuade the naysayers.

So with the mantra “Tuko Pamoja”, Jubilee needs to pull up its socks, otherwise that assumption doesn’t sound convincing.