Why 2017 is hard tackle for Jubilee

Ever since elections started, an incumbent has never lost in Kenya. Even former President Moi, who had to fight off one of the toughest political challenges in 1992, regained his seat. President Moi outwitted a vibrant and internationally supported Opposition that included former President Mwai Kibaki, the doyen of Opposition politics Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenneth Matiba, among many others.PHOTO: COURTESY

“In your estimation,” a friend asked me some time back in 2014, “do you think Jubilee will win re-election?” It was an easy question. Ever since I was elected in 2013, I haven’t found it probable that the Jubilee coalition that sponsored my election in Isiolo will lose in 2017. Jubilee, it seems, had taken over the leadership mantle at the right time; a new progressive Constitution being the main highlight.

But then with the elections coming close, I am getting disabused of that thought. No doubt, Jubilee enjoys incumbency and with it comes many advantages: the incumbent often has more name recognition because of their previous work in the office they occupy; incumbents have easier access to campaign finance and Government resources that can be indirectly used to boost a campaign. In general, incumbents have structural advantages over challengers during elections.