Opinion: Is Raila Odinga a tactful or reckless politician?

“Raila has no office structure, no discipline in his life or schedule,” said former Head of Public Service Sally Kosgei, a former confidant of Mr Odinga. And she should know.PHOTO: COURTESY

In a few days, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga had gone from being the supposed shrewd and tactful politician to a fumbling and clumsy agent provocateur.

His call for communities to take up arms to force out officials of the much discredited Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has backfired spectacularly.

It clouded the rousing welcome he received in Narok during the burial of former Minister and a former ODM compatriot William ole Ntimama.

At that funeral, many touted him as smart and calculating after he stole the show in a meeting attended by two presidents; Daniel Moi and Uhuru Kenyatta. But what prompted Mr Odinga to say what has clearly boomeranged on his face confounds everyone, least of all his critics.

In any case, IEBC commissioners were vacating office anyway. Whatever mileage he would get from such tough talk is quickly extinguished by the evocation of 2007/08; one of the low moments for most Kenyans. A political giant of sorts, Mr Odinga’s charisma, agility and confidence is enigmatic.

Lionised by his supporters and loathed in equal measure by his numerous detractors, self-doubt has never stalked him; he is the quintessential rouble rouser, the gatecrasher.

In 2007, he proved that a politician could overcome cultural biases by warming to the cockles of the Kalenjins and causing a seismic shift in the politics of the Rift Valley.

Yet it is this success that keeps tripping Mr Odinga. Mr Odinga’s Achilles heel for so long is his knack to lose the connection with things that really matter, to go off-script nudged on by dyed-in-the-wool supporters. And to never find his way back from such disasters.

“Raila has no office structure, no discipline in his life or schedule,” said former Head of Public Service Sally Kosgei, a former confidant of Mr Odinga. And she should know.

Take for example, his stand on the controversial Mau Forest evictions which, for better or for worse, drove the wedge between him and voters in the larger Rift Valley who had fervently supported his bid for the Presidency in 2007.

He never recovered from what many considered a slight from one whom they had voted for to the last man and whose contested win precipitated the ignominious 2007/08 Post Election Violence that led to the death of 1,300 people and a vilification of a whole community.

As Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition government, Mr Odinga suffered the wrath of his troops who thought of him as playing defender-in-chief of a coalition many felt was not working for them.

Always, Mr Odinga has looked like someone who lacks a clear strategy and may be finding it hard to handle the energy, speed and even the recklessness of his detractors and to a large extent, his diehard followers.

Reading what his co-principle in CORD Kalonzo Musyoka had to say in the weekend newspapers, sheds light on the deep-seated suspicion many don’t want to talk about openly. Surely, his allies are tearing apart the CORD coalition.

And Mr Musyoka is not wrong. Like in the case with Deputy President William Ruto and ODM, the trust that he has so painstakingly nurtured in CORD is being exposed to a stress test. Will Mr Musyoka and Moses Wetangula run for the hills when they realise that the script Mr Odinga’s supporters are playing is not the one the three of them have agreed on?

The siren voices in ODM remind me of the proverbial Nigerian goat that soon realised that it was not dirtying the owner’s wall but that its coat was peeling off.

It is the feeling of self-entitlement; of self-assurance by his supporters that turns off potential voters. That takes away the energy from the party. It distracts its focus on the thing that really matters; winning the election in 2017.

By all means, the former PM could be meaning well and no doubt, we owe him a lot. His belief of effective politics and the visionary struggling against the forces of status quo and bitter, tribalised politics has been recorded. He just needs to reach out for those ideals that have made Kenya better.

Yet Mr Odinga is a dreamer. He has always wanted to fix the engine while the car is running. And therein lies the rub; that leads to a lack of attention to detail and a somewhat reckless streak that quickly erodes the trust and the confidence in him.

He also needs to know that charity begins at home and start by admonishing those in his party’s ranks keen on propagating status quo. Recall the infamous Men-in-Black fiasco at Kasarani? ODM lost a chance there to be what people have thought about it.

Fairly speaking, the once formidable Orange party has been pushed to a corner of the country. There is a passive Western Kenya, a rather bewildered Nyanza and nonchalant Coast Province.

And so comments and utterances that reinforce the fear (some say, misplaced) of him should be the last thing to hear. Mr Odinga needs to get out there and act like the statesman he ought to be.