Who will contain a Putin keen on expanding Russia?

In 2001, President George W Bush “looked into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul.” The man known simply as “W” saw a “very straightforward and trustworthy” man. But then again it was the same Mr Bush who saw weapons of mass destruction in Iraq where there were none. So, one should’ve taken Mr Bush’s declarations with pinch of salt. What we do know now is that Mr Bush was dead wrong a gazillion times.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia has turned out to be a cannibal against smaller states contiguous to the Russian Bear. Beware if you live in the former Soviet Union because he may have you for dinner. Not since Adolf Hitler has Europe seen such an imperialist.

Mr Putin reminds me of the poet Rudyard Kipling who wrote “White Man’s Burden.” The English poet exhorted — and commanded — the white man to conquer, occupy, and civilise “half-devil, half-child” natives who had not “acknowledged the sovereignty of reason.” British missionary Denys Shropshire who brought the “holy word” to Zimbabwe called Africans “unlettered natives” who were “primitive” and whom the whites were obligated to lift from barbarism. One way of doing so was to convert Africans to Christianity. Mr Putin’s worldview isn’t that different — he sees Russia as the necessary pivot of the world. To him, the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest tragedy in history. He wants Russia’s colonial possessions back. He’s a man of Empire.

Mr Putin is wildly popular in Russia although majority of Russians barely eke out a tolerable existence. There’s a view, which I reject, that Russians have a genetic proclivity for Strong Men. I’ve heard it said that they prefer dictators to democrats. The same thing was said of the Germans. How else could one explain Hitler’s massive popularity? I struggle with this logic myself.

I think about it every time I watch Judgement at Nuremberg, the deeply insightful 1961 movie of Nazi atrocities. It was clear many Germans supported the pogroms and the gassing of Jews.

This will forever be a blight on their history. But it says that any nation can be seized by madness. Mr Putin knows Russia doesn’t have the wherewithal to be a dominant global power. This deeply disturbs him. But he has nuclear weapons and is determined to use them to blackmail the world into letting him have his way. Like Hitler, he decided to take the Crimea just because he could. In itself, Crimea is worthless to Russia except it allows Mr Putin to puff his chest, and stoke false bravado on the Russian street. It reminds nostalgic Russians who’ve fallen on hard times that they are a “great people.” Most importantly, however, it allows Mr Putin to crush internal dissent and concentrate power in his hands. A few of his critics have been sent six feet under.

Where Crimea was just a dessert for Mr Putin, I believe Ukraine would be an entrée. But unlike Crimea, Mr Putin doesn’t know exactly how to “order” a Ukraine off his menu. He’s used proxies and Russian soldiers to try and dismember Ukraine. I don’t think he really wants Ukraine divved up.

No – he wants to show other former Soviet republics that he can maim and mutilate them should they try to leave Russia’s sphere of influence. Thus Ukraine is being used as a guinea pig to demonstrate to would-be truant post-Soviet republics what lies ahead should they think of joining NATO. I believe he’s put god’s fear into them. The post-Soviet republics are quaking in their boots.

Mr Putin knows there’s nothing the West can do to stop the carnage that he’s ignited in Ukraine. He knows the West wouldn’t provoke a nuclear confrontation over Ukraine. So, he’s using his nuclear muscle to bully everyone.

But if the West doesn’t draw the line there, where will it? Suppose Mr Putin decides to ignite a war in Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia? Will President Obama pull the nuclear trigger? Which allows Mr Putin to dictate the terms of his belligerence. What if he crosses into Poland? He’s now supplying Syria’s butcher, Bashar Assad, with deadly weapons. Is there a red — RED — line Mr Putin won’t cross? Is Mr Putin crazy enough to beckon a nuclear catastrophe? No one knows.

My crystal ball tells me Mr Putin will go as far as he thinks he can get away with. But that may be too far. You can’t appease bullies.

That only makes them stronger. Look at the 1938 misfired concord between Neville Chamberlain and Hitler. PM Chamberlain tried to appease Hitler by offering a morsel of Europe and a possible return of Germany’s Africa’s colonies to avoid war. The dictator smelt weakness and blood and went for the jugular Mr Putin could do the same.