Many Kenyans fear for chaos in next elections

A new opinion poll shows that just under half of Kenyans are certain that the next election will be peaceful even if the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is not reformed or disbanded. And less than 10 per cent of Kenyans polled believe the commission would be phased out through street protests.

According to the poll released yesterday by Ipsos Public Affairs, only 42 per cent of respondents anticipate a peaceful election if reforms demanded at the IEBC, fail to materialise.

But this overall proportion hides a substantial contrast between Jubilee and CORD supporters. While 59 per cent of Jubilee supporters say the elections will be peaceful without any reforms, 54 per cent of CORD followers are of the opinion that the absence of IEBC reforms would necessitate chaos.

The IEBC is currently resisting quit calls by the Opposition which alleges the electoral body would not be a neutral arbiter in the next General Election.

The commission’s preparation for the next elections has been questioned by different political parties, civil society groups and a section of the clergy.

After the 2013 disputed presidential election, which was arbitrated and determined at the Supreme Court, the IEBC has carried out successful by-elections.

But lately, the electoral commissioners have found themselves on the receiving end from the political class, especially Opposition leaders, on allegations of bias and integrity questions. According to the opinion poll, among those aware of CORD’s demand for the removal of IEBC commissioners, 55 per cent believe the most effective way the ouster could be achieved would be through a constitutional amendment taken to Parliament. By contrast, 9 per cent believe it could be achieved by means of street demonstrations and protests.

Early this year, the first phase of the mass voter registration exercise failed to achieve its target despite massive voter education.

On its own admission, the IEBC said it missed its registration target by 70 per cent, with some counties recording no new registrations during the first three weeks of the exercise. As a result, close to three million targeted eligible voters were left out of the process.

Confidence in the probability of peaceful polls is split with 63 per cent of respondents in Central Kenya believing that the polls will be peaceful even without IEBC reforms.

The church has stepped into the IEBC debate, calling for dialogue between the opposition, the government and the polls body.

Yesterday, religious leaders said they had reached out to the opposition and the commissioners to try and broker an agreement that would lead to the end of the current quagmire.

As the push and pull continues, the poll further says that a majority of Kenyans still believe in the Judiciary’s ability to solve election disputes.

“83 per cent of respondents mentioned the Judiciary as the institutional recourse for resolving election disputes,” the poll says. Levels of awareness of this option vary considerably according to education, however, with fewer than half of those who did not complete primary education aware of this role played by the Judiciary, as opposed to nearly 90 per cent among those whose education went beyond secondary school.

The pollster interviewed 2,144 respondents all aged 18 years and above living in urban and rural areas in all the 47 counties of Kenya.