Britain's EU exit would hurt Kenya

I landed last week to a chilly spring weather in the UK, compared to scorching heat at home. My arrival was greeted by two unique events happening in the UK, but also in the whole of Europe.

One of course was the breaking news about the terror attack in Brussels. The other major news was the debate about the withdrawal from the EU by Great Britain. In my view, these simultaneous events are correlated.

The main argument being voiced by the proponents of Brexit, a short code for British exit from the union, is about the perceived uncontrolled immigration to the British isle.

Eurosceptics main beef is mainly immigration. The fear is that a porous border will let in immigrants from Eastern Europe who will the crowd the job market out of scarce job opportunities.

Ironically, the eurosceptics are slowly playing into the hands of the the same violent extremists they so much dread. In the last one year, more than one million refugees showed up at the borders of the European Union, including Britain.

Most of the refugees are people escaping the war in the Middle East. The main push factor is people escaping persecution by the ISIS and other related groups. The war being enhanced by the European and western powers in form of their intervention is only escalating the conflict.

The response to these challenges in the UK is not to withdraw from Europe but to integrate even more. In a way, ISIS would have succeeded in its mission because a break-up would mean a weaker Europe.

The movement of refugees from the war-torn countries cannot be stopped because desperate people are going to use any means within their disposal to come to the UK. Remember Australia is also an island continent, yet many refugees still find their way using boats and other modes of transport. Immigration therefore should not be used as the main driving factor for the withdrawal by the UK from the European Union.

Of course the British are concerned about the increasing influence of the European Parliament on the legislation of member countries. This could better be addressed through dialogue and lobbying with other member countries.

I fully agree with the opponents of the exit. The United Kingdom is stronger in Europe than out of it. Most of the negotiating power that it currently has derives from being a strong nation and a founder member of the EU.

It is within the devolved regions within the UK itself that an EU exit would wreak the most havoc, risking a constitutional crisis. Both the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and EU law are incorporated directly into the devolution statutes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

For example, section 29(2) (d) of the Scotland Act 1998 (SA), provides that Acts of the Scottish Parliament that are incompatible with EU law or with ECHR rights are 'not law'.

Section 108(6) Government of Wales Act 2006 states that any act of the Welsh Assembly incompatible with EU law or the ECHR, falls outside its competence. Section 24 of the Northern Ireland Act prohibits any legislation contrary to EU or ECHR law.

A break-up from Europe could even mean the reintroduction of a referendum on Scottish independence. Most people in the devolved regions of the UK such as the Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales favour the EU.

These regions are net beneficiaries of the EU. Any majority vote for leaving the EU could trigger a new debate on whether acts of the Union of 1707 is still valid.

In conclusion, a British exit from the EU risks undermining the very self-determination and national sovereignty that its adherents believe it will bring about. This is because it risks shattering the fragile balance and stability of the UK by threatening the peace settlement in Northern Ireland and raises the possibility of a further independence referendum in Scotland.

Surely such constitutional risks are not to be taken lightly? But at present, there is little indication that anyone calling for an EU exit is giving them much thought.

A vote to leave Europe would damage the economy of Europe's biggest military power and the world's fifth largest economy. In fact, nearly half of Britain's exports are absorbed in Europe.

Also, EU foreign and security policy will be in peril were Britain to exit the union. A Brexit also doesn't bode well for the the United Kingdom because Scotland will certainly want out of the Union.

In the final analysis, a weakened Europe is bad for Britain.

For African countries like Kenya, most of the trade agreements with the UK were based on the European Union legislation. A withdrawal will severely affect these agreements. As trading block the EU needs to remain intact.

Any discomfort by some member state should be addressed. But the UK cannot also dictate its terms for being a member without convincing at least a size able majority.