Factors likely to tilt hotly contested by-election in diverse Malindi

CORd Leader Raila Odinga (2ndright) flanked by Kalonzo Musyoka (3rd right) and Moses Wetangula (right) and Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho (2nd left) and several Cord Politicians at Ngala grounds, Malindi in Kilifi County on Monday, 08th February,2016. The Leaders were holding a public rally to drum support after their ODM candidate for Malindi by-election Willy Mtengo was cleared by IEBC. [PHOTO:MAARUFU MOHAMED/STANDARD]

The outcome of the Malindi by-election slated for March 7 will be determined by several unique factors. One is recent sacking of National Oil Corporation managing director Sumayya Athumani, a native of Malindi from the marginalised Bajuni tribe. CORD is using the dismissal of Malindi-born Sumayya to counter Jubilee’s onslaught of goodies including the recent appointment of Dan Kazungu to the Cabinet to woo voters.

“Jubilee government would only accommodate you if you are corrupt. They have sacked a young, professional and hardworking girl from here (Malindi),” said CORD’s principal Raila Odinga last week as he campaigned for ODM’s candidate Willy Mtengo.

Since Raila sparked off the debate about Sumayya’s sacking at a rally in Malindi the issue has remained a campaign tool to counter Jubilee.

James Kombe, resident of Majengo area in Malindi said the dismissal of Sumayya could affect Jubilee’s bid to woo voters in the Shella Ward, one of the five wards in the constituency with a high number of voters.

But other observers are also pointing to the religious and teachers’ movement as groups that could determine the outcome.

“Philip Charo (JAP candidate) banks on the Church given that he comes from a religious family. His wife is a pastor in the Anglican Church of Kenya. His brother is the founder member of the teachers main Sacco called Imarika in Kilifi and another sibling is the chairman of head teachers union in Malindi. We will wait and see whether he will be able to utilise those connections,” said Mr Stanley Chai, an all of Mr Charo.

He said Charo is also a relative of Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro and Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi but the family is now divided given that Kingi supports CORD’s William Mtengo.

Some analysts indicate turnout will determine whether the so-called up country community of voters including ethnic Kikuyu, Luo, Akamba, Luyia and Kisii in a constituency notorious for low poll turn outs.

The candidate’s academic qualification could also determine the outcome with Jubilee’s campaigns filled with the message about the need to elect educated and articulate leader in an apparent efforts sway voters following recent concerns about Mtengo’s academic qualifications.

Official campaigns kicked off this weekend after the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC) cleared seven candidates last week. Main contenders for the by-election are JAP’s  Charo and CORD’s  Mtengo.

On February 8, CORD top guns, Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang’ula campaigned for Mtengo in rural areas.

On the same day Jubilee leaders led by National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale crisscrossed Malindi town in a bid to woo voters.

Malindi Constituency has 55,853 voters and the contenders appear keen on the two urban Wards in Malindi town expected to tilt the results in the mini poll.

Mtengo, Charo, Shirikisho Party’s David Mangi and Reuben Katana all came from Ganda Ward which has a total of 9, 666 voters.

Peter Ponda of Chama Cha Uzalenda (CCU) comes from the Kakuyuni ward with 4,958 votes, Labour Party of Kenya (LPK’s) Attas Sharrif Ali from Shilla Ward while Nelson Gunga of the Federal Party of Kenya (FPK) is from Jilore.

The urban wards, Shella and Malindi have 17,336 votes and 16, 803 votes respectively, according to IEBC figures. The two wards are home to the majority Bajuni community and upcountry voters mainly, the Luo, Kikuyu, Luyia and Kisii communities.

MP Gideon Mung’aro has since mid-last year concentrated in the rural areas castigating the Opposition coalition.

Mung’aro and some politicians who have been labelled ODM rebels have claimed that Mtengo was not fairly nominated.

“The candidate was picked by Kingi (governor) and the party wants to push him down our throats. That is why we will support Philip Charo regardless of the party,” said Kilifi South MP Mustafa Idd.

Other than the swing votes, religion, party politics, unemployment and land equation are factors that would determine the outcome of poll.

“Urban swing votes are very important but there are other factors like party politics, land equation, education and candidates’ religions networks are key in the elections outcome,” said an insider.