Another chance for Uhuru, Raila to lock horns

By DENNIS ONYANGO

Kenya: President Uhuru Kenyatta might yet again fight a supremacy battle against his arch political rival Raila Odinga in the Bonchari by-election that are scheduled to be conducted on June 2.

In the 2013 General Election, Raila had an upper hand in the region, but President Uhuru has been catching up in the recent past.

In the last election, Bonchari gave Raila overwhelming support in his presidential bid. Raila garnered 25,984 votes followed by President Uhuru with 7,040.

However, mismanagement in the primaries saw ODM’s candidate Charles Onyancha with 6,897 votes emerging third after Oyioka and Opore. The fourth candidate was Wiper’s Albert Monyancha, who only garnered 160 votes.

Already, Oyioka, Opore and Professor Charles Okioga, a Kisii University lecturer, have declared their intention to vie in the coming by-election. There are also unconfirmed reports of Geoffrey Mogire, an official of the Kenya National Union of Teachers, joining the race.

In the elections, Kisii County, where Bonchari Constituency lies, voted overwhelmingly for ODM candidates.

Four of the region’s nine MPs were from the ODM party. However, Chris Bichage, who won in Nyaribari Chache lost in a by-election.

At the county government, ODM won all the seats. Governor James Ongwae of ODM defeated his closest rival, TNA’s Lumumba Nyaberi by 166,429 people.

Arleady, there are jittery within ODM that failure to have a clear candidate to face the other contestants might work against the party.

However, the fact that no contestant has openly declared to be vying on an Orange ticket is the party’s another blow.

Onyancha is yet to decide whether to make another bite. “I am still waiting for the seat to be declared vacant then I will see the way forward,” he says.

Opore says he will contest the seat on Ford People ticket.

He hopes to ride on the growing wave of the Simeon Nyachae’s party to clinch the seat. Oyioka on the other hand will use KANU.

Raised alarm

Having signed a post-election pact with the Jubilee alliance, the election could pit the two affiliate parties against one another.

Oyioka has already raised alarm over claims that Jubilee plans to throw its weight behind Opore in the by-election.

“Jubilee should allow candidates from its affiliate parties to meet at the ballot or conduct nominations to field a single candidate. If they fail to do this, then I will be forced to rethink about the choice of party to use,” he said. Opore has, however, denied claims that he is being favoured by the Jubilee alliance, saying his opponent is worried because he has sensed defeat.

Deputy President William Ruto’s party, URP, has declared it will not field a candidate so as to strengthen the chances of a win by their partner in government, TNA.

Having tasted the seat for six months each after the last General Election, the two candidates are already campaigning. Oyioka has hinted that he might be forced to join ODM if Jubilee throws its weight behind his opponent.

Having lost two successive mini-polls in Kisii, ODM is repositioning itself to save its dwindling fortunes in yet another by-election to be held in the area. But the changing political landscape points to a tough political duel that awaits the Orange the party. Ford People, an affiliate party of the ruling Jubilee coalition has recently emerged as a force to reckon with, falling ‘giants’ in the recent by-election held in the region.

ODM MPs believe it will not be an easy task unless the party changes tact. Kitutu Chache South MP Richard Onyonka warns that the party’s popularity would be put at stake unless it saves its image by capturing the Bonchari parliamentary seat. Losing the third time, he says, will be suicidal in the region where the party has enjoyed massive support.

“The party must now have a common front and approach the election as a family. All the governors must come out to support the candidate,” he says.

Rival camps

Onyonka opines that discord in the party partly led to its failure to clinch victory in the two successive mini polls, saying a section of some party members campaigned for candidates from the rival camps.

He also blames the party for having not funded its candidates in the previous exercises.

“The party must invest resources in its candidates. The people of Kisii are disappointed because they feel that the party has sidelined them despite massive support,” he says.

ODM is still recovering from its botched February national election that had also pitted party leader Raila against some area politicians. Rongo MP Dalmas Otieno, formerly a close ally of the former Prime Minister, had even threatened to quit the party and spearhead formation of a new outfit to rival ODM.

Some ODM members have warned that they might lose the third round unless the party does thorough reorganisation.

They claim the party’s poor showing in the region has been occasioned by disunity and poorly held party primaries.

Rarieda MP Nicholas Gumbo says botched nominations made some members shift loyalty in the previous by-elections.

“Some of them backed candidates from their opponents because they were not satisfied with the nomination exercise,” he states.

The legislator says the party must now learn from its past mistakes and unite all members ahead of the mini-poll.“We must now conduct free and fair nominations if we have to make a comeback in the elections,” Gumbo says. The fact that neither of the two leading contenders in the March 4 polls were from ODM strongly hints that it will not be an easy ride for the party in the upcoming polls.

The by-election will be conducted after the Court of Appeal quashed High Court decision of September 20, 2013 that installed John Oyioka as the MP without ordering a by-election at the end of the petition.

The High Court sitting in Kisii had declared Oyioka as the MP after successful petition in which vote recount indicated he defeated the then MP Zebedeo Opore.

However, the surprise change of fortunes has sent the whole party brigade back to the drawing board.

Bomachoge Chache MP Simon Ogari (ODM) says the party is working on a formula on how to approach the elections.

“We are currently holding talks on the best way to approach the election for the party’s victory,” he says. In the two previous by-elections, South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya (ODM) among other leaders openly defied the party and drummed up support for Ford People. Some of the Kisii ODM branch officials also broke ranks with the party and threw their weight behind rival candidates.

— Additional reporting by Nyambega Gisesa